منابع رشد بهره وری انرژی و پویایی توزیع آن در چین
|کد مقاله||سال انتشار||تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی||ترجمه فارسی|
|11729||2011||14 صفحه PDF||سفارش دهید|
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Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)
Journal : Resource and Energy Economics, Volume 33, Issue 1, January 2011, Pages 279–292
The purposes of this paper are to determine the sources of energy productivity growth at the provincial level in China and to examine the relative contributions of the sources and their impacts on regional inequality. Energy productivity change is first decomposed into five components attributable to changes in capital–energy ratio, labor–energy ratio, output structure, and technical efficiency change and technological change. Then a nonparametric analysis is implemented to statistically test the relative contributions of the components and their roles in the distribution dynamics of energy productivity. It is found that (1) changes in capital–energy ratio, output structure, and technological change contribute to energy productivity growth in China, (2) increase in capital–energy ratio caused by capital accumulation is the primary driving force for energy productivity growth, and (3) capital accumulation contributes to energy productivity convergence between Chinese provinces over the time period of 1990–2005.
China is the world's most populous country and has a rapidly growing economy with an average annual growth rate of 9.5% in the past decades since 1978 when China initiated its economic reforms. As China's economy continues to grow, so does its energy demand. In 1993, China became a net importing country of crude oil. Energy productivity (i.e., the inverse of energy intensity) is a key indicator for discussions on maintaining energy supply security and controlling climate change. Two stylized facts are widely observed and analyzed by many previous studies in the literature. First, China's energy productivity is relatively low and far below than that in industrialized countries. Second, a positive signal is that it has risen significantly since 1978. It is of theoretical and practical importance to explain the contributors to the increases in energy productivity, especially for a giant energy consumer like China. Many previous studies made efforts to do so, but the findings are far from conclusive. A majority of the studies find that technical change within sectors accounted for most of increase in energy productivity in China (Garbaccio et al., 1999, Lin and Polenske, 1995 and Sinton and Levine, 1994), while several others conclude that structural change in energy use is the major contributor (World Bank, 1994). The third explanation for the growth is that it is based on reported data that are inaccurate (Fisher-Vanden et al., 2004 and Sinton and Fridley, 2000). The purposes of the present paper are to determine the sources of energy productivity growth at the provincial level in China and to examine the relative contributions of the sources to growth and their impacts on energy productivity disparities across provinces. To accomplish the purposes, we implement two different but related nonparametric methods. The first method allows one to model energy as an input factor in the process of producing outputs along with other input factors such as capital and labor, and then decompose energy productivity change between two time periods into five components attributable to changes in capital–energy ratio, labor–energy ratio, output structure, and technical efficiency change and technological change. The second nonparametric method is implemented to statistically test the relative contributions of the components and their roles in the distribution dynamics of energy productivity between the two time periods, not just compare the means or variances of each contributor. In addition, there are two other major innovations of this paper. First, we use cross-region data observed at the level of province in China, which complements the existing literature in which most studies rely on sector data. Second, we also investigate convergence trend in energy productivity across provinces in China, then we can understand more about the evolution of energy productivity in this country. Major findings of the paper can be summarized as follows. First, changes in capital–energy ratio, output structure, and technological change contribute to energy productivity growth at the national level in China. Second, increase in capital–energy ratio caused by capital accumulation is the primary driving force for energy productivity growth. Third, capital accumulation also contributes to energy productivity convergence between Chinese provinces over the time period of 1990–2005. The remainder of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 briefly develops the basic framework for decomposing energy productivity change to provide the foundation for our empirical analyses. Section 3 describes data and reports preliminary results of the decomposition exercise. Section 4 is an analysis of energy productivity distribution dynamics. The final section concludes.
نتیجه گیری انگلیسی
This paper decomposed energy productivity changes in China's provinces between the years 1990 and 2005 into five components and tests their relative contributions in the process of energy productivity growth. It is found that changes in capital–energy ratio, output structure, and technological change contributed positively to energy productivity growth at the national level in China while decrease in labor–energy ratio reduced it. Increase in capital–energy ratio played the most important role in the process of growth over the time period. Capital accumulation not only drove the growth of energy productivity in the provinces, but also contributed to convergence of the level of energy productivity between provinces. As China's macroeconomic policies continue to mainly focus on economic growth in the foreseeable future with aggressive aims to cut energy consumption per unit of gross national product in a national plan for energy conservation, capital accumulation would still play an important role in increasing energy productivity. However, the observed growth in energy productivity was found to be largely driven by capital accumulation, thus questioning its sustainability. Related policy should emphasis on promoting technological growth and improvements in technical efficiency (especially in those poor and interior provinces). This paper to decomposing energy productivity change into contributing factors by using output distance functions provides an available method for related analyses which has much flexible data requirement and allows us to analyze cross-region data. It measures separately the effects of changes in capital–energy ratio, labor–energy ratio and output structure, and technical efficiency change and technological change without any assumptions about the functional form of the production function. The nonparametric test can be used to determine the statistical significance of the effect of each component from the decomposition result which is more informative than summary measures like the conditional mean and variance.