پیش بینی جهت مند خوش بینی-بدبینی در بزرگسالی با عزت نفس در دوران نوجوانی در اوایل و اواخر: مطالعه طولی 21 سال

Abstract A 21-year longitudinal study investigated whether self-esteem in early and late adolescence, at ages 12 and 18, and any changes in it is related to dispositional optimism–pessimism in adulthood, at the age of 33. The subjects comprised a population-based sample of young Finns. The results showed that the self-esteem measured during adolescent years is significantly associated with dispositional optimism–pessimism in adulthood accounting for 5–19% of variance (p’s < .001). Further, results revealed that adolescents scoring in the top thirds of self-esteem at the age of 12 and 18 showed significantly lower levels of pessimism than those whose self-esteem had changed or stayed low during the adolescent years.

Introduction Generalized expectancies of future outcomes, i.e., dispositional optimism and pessimism, constitute an important dimension of personality. Individuals with an optimistic life orientation tend to have positive expectations for the future, to see desired outcomes as attainable and to persist in their goal-directed efforts. Those with a pessimistic life orientation have negative outcome expectations, withdraw effort and become passive, and potentially give up on achieving their goals (Scheier & Carver, 1985). Dispositional optimism–pessimism has been shown to be a relatively stable disposition across time (e.g., Scheier, Carver, & Bridges, 1994) and in different contexts (e.g, Park & Folkman, 1997). Empirical evidence showing that dispositional optimism and pessimism have contrasting effects on psychological and physical well-being is mounting (for reviews, see Scheier and Carver, 1985, Scheier and Carver, 1992 and Scheier et al., 2001). Relative to information on the psychological and physical consequences of optimism–pessimism, surprisingly little is known about the developmental correlates of individual differences in this disposition. A study of Swedish twins showed that up to 25% of the variance in dispositional optimism–pessimism may be due to hereditary factors (Plomin et al., 1992). Also difficult temperament of the child has been shown to be related to later adulthood pessimism (Heinonen, Räikkönen, & Keltikangas-Järvinen, 2005). Regarding the childhood family of origin, negatively turned parenting (e.g., inconsistency in love, low care and emotional closeness) and family atmosphere (e.g., low levels of cohesion) has been shown to be, both retrospectively as well as longitudinally, related to higher pessimism scores in adulthood (Heinonen et al., 2005, Heinonen et al., 2004 and Hjelle et al., 1996). In contrast to these findings, during adolescence, fathers’, mothers’ or adolescents’ own current reports of parenting were not related to their concurrent reports of optimism–pessimism (Brewin, Andrews, & Furnham, 1996). The current study focuses on self-esteem in adolescence as the potential predictor of adulthood optimism–pessimism. Adolescence has been shown to be a critical period for development of self-esteem, i.e., one’s evaluative judgement about oneself (Coopersmith, 1967 and DuBois et al., 1996), or one’s overall feelings of worth or value as a person (Harter, 1993 and Rosenberg, 1979). During adolescence, self-evaluations have been suggested to be challenged (cf. Caspi and Roberts, 1999 and Twenge and Campbell, 2001) and still changeable (e.g. Block and Robins, 1993, Deihl et al., 1997 and Trzedniewski et al., 2003). Further, there has been shown to be considerable variation in developmental trajectories of self-esteem during adolescence (e.g., Block and Robins, 1993 and Deihl et al., 1997), and its stability has been shown to increase throughout adolescence (Trzedniewski et al., 2003). Studying self-esteem in relation to later optimism–pessimism has both conceptual as well as empirical bases. Self-esteem represents a sense of self-worth carrying the implication that one will be accepted rather that rejected by others, and that one is not a failure in one’s life. According to Scheier et al. (1994) these consequences of cause involve positive versus negative outcomes, thus linking self-esteem conceptually to optimism. Self-esteem and optimism–pessimism have also been suggested to be related via the variance they share in concept core self-evaluations (Bono & Judge, 2003). Scheier and Carver (1992) have also suggested that one source, even though certainly not the only, of the outcome expectations are found in evaluations of the self. Still in another article, Scheier and Carver (1993) propose that it is reasonable to argue that optimism–pessimism is partly learned from prior experiences of success and failure. Experiences of success and failure are also among the main predictors of individual differences in self-esteem (e.g., Harter, 1999). Moreover, empirical cross-sectional studies have shown that optimism–pessimism and self-esteem are substantially related, the correlations ranging from .67 in 11-to-14-year-old adolescents (Carvajal, Clair, Nash, & Evans, 1998), .48 to .67 in university undergraduates/college freshmen (Aspinwall and Taylor, 1992, Brissette et al., 2002, Scheier and Carver, 1985 and Scheier et al., 1994), .62 in HIV-infected men and women (Andersson, 1999), .73 to .75 among working age Finnish women and men (Mäkikangas & Kinnunen, 2003), to .80 in 20–43-year-old pregnant women (Fontaine & Jones, 1997). Theoretical suggestions and empirical findings show that self-esteem and optimism–pessimism are related concepts. Furthermore, studying self-esteem in adolescence may be especially valuable giving its developing nature during that period. Yet, none studies that would have tested whether self-esteem measured in adolescence is associated with optimism–pessimism in adulthood in a longitudinal study design could be located. Further, no study has paid attention to the role of change in self-esteem during adolescence years. We measured self-esteem at the age of 12, and at the age of 18, and optimism–pessimism 21 years later at the age of 33. The study design allowed us to test whether the rank-order stability and change (c.f. Neyer & Asendorpf, 2001) (or differential continuity, as referred in other context (Caspi & Roberts, 2001)) from early to late adolescence, predicts optimism–pessimism in adulthood 21 years later. Finally, we took into account the gender of the participant. Even though no systematic gender-related differences in the dispositional optimism–pessimism construct exist (e.g., Räikkönen, Matthews, Flory, Owens, & Gump, 1999), it has been proposed that differences in socialization practices broaden the range of experience for boys and restrict it for girls (Block and Robins, 1993 and Block, 1983). Thus, more diversity in the developmental patterns of self-esteem is permitted for boys than for girls, and the rank-order stability of self-esteem is considerably lower for men than for women (Block & Robins, 1993).

. Results Table 1 shows the mean values of the study variables broken down by gender. No significant differences existed between the women and the men in the level of self-esteem at the age of 12, nor in the level of optimism–pessimism at the age of 33; the women reported a higher level of self-esteem at the age of 18 than the men did. Self-esteem measured at the age of 12, and 6 years later at the age of 18, were significantly related (Pearson’s r = .35, p < .01). 3.1. Self-esteem at ages 12 and 18, and dispositional optimism–pessimism at the age of 33 Self-esteem at ages 12 (β = −.23, p < .001) and 18 (β = −.43, p < .001) significantly predicted dispositional optimism–pessimism at the age of 33, explaining 5 and 19% of the variance, respectively. Fig. 1 illustrates this finding using thirds of self-esteem. Post-hoc trend analyses (polynomial contrasts testing linearity) indicated that optimism–pessimism scores decreased linearly from the top to the bottom thirds (F’s > 15.6, p’s < .001). The above findings concern the combined group of women and men. The associations did not vary by gender. Level of dispositional pessimism in groups scoring high, middle and low in ... Fig. 1. Level of dispositional pessimism in groups scoring high, middle and low in self-esteem. F-value presents the result of the ANOVA testing mean levels differences in dispositional pessimism. Figure options 3.2. Change in self-esteem over the age period 12–18 in predicting dispositional pessimism at the age of 33 Regression analyses showed that self-esteem at the age of 18, when controlling for the level of self-esteem at the age of 12, significantly predicted dispositional optimism–pessimism at the age of 33 (β = −.36, p < .001). This rank-order level change in self-esteem over 6 years explained 13% of the variance on optimism–pessimism. The a priori hypothesized path model testing whether a model including paths from self-esteem at the age of 12 and at the age of 18 to optimism–pessimism at the age of 33, and a path from self-esteem at the age of 12 to self-esteem at the age of 18, showed a good fit (χ2/df = 1.67, CFI = .96, NNFI = .95, RMSEA = .076). Identical with the results of the linear regression analyses, self-esteem at the age of 12, and a decrease in the rank-order level from the age of 12 to the age of 18, predicted pessimism in adulthood ( Fig. 2). Associations between changes in self-esteem and optimism–pessimism did not vary by gender. Path model of self-esteem in predicting dispositional pessimism. Fig. 2. Path model of self-esteem in predicting dispositional pessimism. Figure options Multinomial logistic regression analyses showed that relative to adolescents with scores in the top thirds of the gender-specific distributions of self-esteem at study entry and 6 years later, those with self-esteem scores (1) in the bottom thirds on the gender-specific distributions at study entry and 6 years later (n = 45, B = .34, p < .001), (2) in the bottom thirds at study entry and in the top thirds 6 years later (n = 20, B = .18, p < .05), and (3) in the top thirds at study entry and in the bottom thirds 6 years later (n = 19, B = .35, p < .001), showed a significantly higher level of pessimism at the age of 33. Fig. 3 illustrates that pessimism increased according to the groups of consistently high, increasing, decreasing and consistently low self-esteem over time (unweighted linear terms F(1, 120) = 29.6, p < .001, and deviation F(2, 120) = 1.15, p = .32). Level of dispositional pessimism in groups based on thirds of self-esteem from ... Fig. 3. Level of dispositional pessimism in groups based on thirds of self-esteem from 12 to 18 years old. F-values present the results of ANOVAs testing mean levels differences in dispositional pessimism.