مدل قیمت گذاری قرارداد انتخابی زنجیره تامین مواد طبیعی

Relief material management which aims to reduce the impact of disaster and maintain social stability is of great importance for nonprofit organization (NPO) such as government, department of civil affair or Red Cross. However, the research of efficiency and performance on this field has long been ignored. In order to improve the efficiency and performance of the relief material management, we apply the supply chain management method into this field. Considering the relief material management system as a supply chain with one buyer and one supplier, we introduce the option contract mechanism into relief material supply chain management. With reasonable assumptions, we design an option contract with two delivery steps, and build an option pricing model with binominal lattice to estimate the different values of the same option contract for both members of supply chain. Furthermore, we analyze the impacts of the different parameters (such as the ratio of inventory, subjective probability of disaster, etc.), on the supply chain and its members in detail. The numerical example presented at last demonstrates that, with two delivery steps, there is a feasible price range of option contract which makes both members of relief material supply chain profitable and willing to conduct the transaction with option contract.

Relief material supply chain management differs from the traditional supply chain management. According to Beamon's [1] study, these differences include nonprofit identity of the buyer, high stakes (often life-and-death), unreliability, incomplete prior information and demand pattern. For these features do not fit the profit-maximization assumption of traditional supply chain management, we cannot duplicate its methodology and put into practical use. Therefore, a new tool which more effectively suits relief material supply chain management is needed to improve the performance of relief material supply chain. Option is a kind of derivatives, and for a long time it has been used as an effective tool to avoid risks and reduce uncertainty in finance. Many scholars had introduced the option as a kind of contract into real assets field and studied option contract in supply chain management. Essentially, option is a special right of choice: by pre-paying premium, the buyer gets the right to purchase (or sell) goods at fixed price before expiry date. This right of choice endows the buyer with the power to control large amount of materials with small amount of funds, reduce risk and delay decision. These three powers can cope with the problems of different demand pattern, high stakes and lack of prior information, respectively. Therefore, we believe the option contract can fit the specialties of relief material supply chain. However, the literatures on combining option contract with relief material supply chain can hardly be found. Our work would venture into this gap. The purpose of this paper is to build an option contract pricing model in relief material supply chain and to find a feasible range of prices within which both the buyer and supplier are profitable and willing to conduct the transaction with option contract instead of wholesale price mechanism. To achieve this aim, firstly we design an option contract with two steps delivery process and present the conditions, which the pricing model must satisfy. Secondly, we build an alternative binomial option pricing model to estimate the value of option contract for different members of supply chain. The option pricing model presented in this paper is more accurate and consists with reality for it takes account of the price fluctuation of relief material and subjective probability of disasters. The numerical example demonstrated at last shows that the feasible range exists as long as the option pricing model subjects to the given conditions. The paper is organized as follows: In Section 2, related work from literature is reviewed. In Section 3, we design the option contract with two steps delivery and introduce conditions under which both the buyer and supplier are profitable and willing to conduct the transaction with option contract. Section 4 introduces the option pricing model and capital leverage index. Section 5 analyses the parameters in detail. The simulations results are presented in Section 6. Section 7 concludes the paper and presents perspectives for further work.

To introduce real option method into supply chain management of relief materials, we design an option contract with two steps delivery process and build an alternative binominal option pricing model. Our research shows that, with option contract mechanism, we can find a feasible range of prices which is profitable for both the buyer and the supplier. The profit increment is more attractive than wholesale price mechanism. With an option contract, the buyer can make the order after demand is clear and control more materials with less capital. By diminishing the cost of inventory, the buyer can purchase more relief materials and it will greatly enhance his risk response ability. At the same time, the supplier can sell the relief material more than its present price and the pre-paid premium will fully cover his risk. All profit of the supply chain comes from the risk management. Option contract frees the occupied capital and inventory cost and shares the benefit between the buyer and supplier. Future research may be done on replacing the present approximate regression solution with a more accurate analytical solution. Introducing production capacity function of supplier to the pricing model is also one possible future direction. Moreover, in order to share the risk, the model can be extended to include multiple suppliers. Finally, to further reduce the risk of out of stock, it may be helpful to apply routine inspection to the system and study the impact of inspection cost on contract design and pricing process.