یک مدل مبتنی بر سناریوی برای ارزیابی اثربخشی مدیریت اضطراری زلزله

Earthquakes usually produce a complex disaster chain including fires, landslides, floods, plague, and social panic, which eventually leads to disastrous consequences. In such situations, earthquake emergency management is vital for reducing the risks and the disastrous consequences. Scenario-based methods have often been used by decision makers in different fields as an instrument to manage the uncertainty of the effects of earthquakes. This paper adopts a scenario-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of earthquake emergency management. The model extracts the key elements of earthquake emergency management, simulates possible earthquake disaster scenarios, and obtains an evaluation according to the real situation. It is verified by comparing it with the real situation of the Wenchuan earthquake in China through scenario deduction and simulation. It shows that the scenario-based model can be used to reproduce the development process of an earthquake, identify the key factors which can effectively reduce earthquake losses and then help policy makers to have a better understanding of the earthquake disaster from which to put forward practical measures for emergency management.