مدیریت جریان های نقدی و عملکرد مالی شرکت های تولیدی : چشم انداز طولی

A firm's cash flow policies, which manage working capital in the form of cash receivables from customers, inventory holdings, and cash payments to suppliers, are inexorably linked to the firm's operations. Building on earlier research, this study: (i) extends prior studies by examining the relationships between changes in cash flow measures and changes in firm financial performance using a longitudinal sample of firm data; and (ii) investigates the direction of the relationship between quarterly changes in cash flow positions and firm financial performance. This study is conducted using the Generalized Estimating Equations (GEE) methodology to analyze a longitudinal sample of eight quarters of cash flow and financial performance data from 1233 manufacturing firms. The analyses find that changes in the widely used Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC) metric do not relate to changes in firm performance; however, changes in the less used Operating Cash Cycle (OCC) metric are found to be significantly associated with changes in Tobin's q. This examination of how changes in specific cash flow measures relate to changes in Tobin's q shows that both reductions in Accounts Receivables (measured as Days of Sales Outstanding [DSO]) and reductions in Inventory (measured as Days of Inventory Outstanding [DIO]) relate to firm financial performance improvements that persist for several quarters. Endogeneity tests of whether a firm's cash flow management strategy leads to changes in firm performance or if the cash flow strategy is a byproduct of firm performance suggest that reductions in DSO lead to improved firm financial performance.

Cash flow management has become a critical element of many firms' operational strategies (Fisher, 1998 and Quinn, 2011). A firm's cash flow policies, which manage working capital in the form of cash receivables from customers, inventory holdings, and cash payments to suppliers, are widely linked to improved firm financial performance (Richards and Laughlin, 1980 and Stewart, 1995). While industry has broadly accepted effective cash flow management as a performance improvement mechanism, the preponderance of academic investigations into the link between cash flows and performance examines the issue from a static, benchmarking perspective (Ebben and Johnson, 2011, Farris and Hutchison, 2002, Farris and Hutchison, 2003 and Moss and Stine, 1993). Namely, although previous efforts propose that adjustments to a firm's cash flow will change the firm's performance, they support these propositions empirically by comparing and contrasting firms utilizing static snapshot measures of cash flow positions and performance. Though this static approach has provided a wealth of insight into the value of effective cash flow management, economic relationships tend to be dynamic (Nerlove, 2005). In general, approaches that explore such relationships from a longitudinal panel perspective lead to more accurate inferences and a better understanding of the underlying economic complexities (Hsiao, 2007). Consequently, in this study, the relationships between changes in a firm's cash flow positions and changes in the firm's performance are explored from a dynamic viewpoint. Prevalent working capital management theory advocates that firms can improve liquidity, and hence their competitive positioning by manipulating their cash flows (Brewer and Speh, 2000, Farris and Hutchison, 2002, Farris and Hutchison, 2003, Christopher and Ryals, 1999, Moss and Stine, 1993 and Stewart, 1995). Further, a firm's ability to convert materials into cash from sales is a reflection of the firm's ability to generate returns effectively from its investments (Gunasekaran et al., 2004). Three factors directly influence a firm's access to cash: (i) cash from accounts receivables is not available to firms while they are awaiting customer payments for delivered goods; (ii) cash invested in goods is tied up and not available while those goods are held in inventory; and (iii) cash may be made available to a firm if it chooses to delay payment to suppliers for goods or services rendered (Richards and Laughlin, 1980). Although a firm's cash payments and receipts typically are managed by the firm's finance department, the three factors that influence cash flows are manipulated chiefly by operational decisions (Özbayraka and Akgün, 2006). Although the literature contains numerous studies that examine the relationship among cash cycles, firm liquidity, and firm financial performance, this study explores several extensions of these previous efforts. First, because prior studies generally examine the relationship between snapshots of cash flow and performance measures from a static benchmarking perspective, this study explores the relationship between longitudinal changes in cash flow metrics and changes in firm financial performance over time. This approach will allow firms to determine which cash flow measures should be monitored and manipulated to track and improve firm performance. Second, because previous empirical cash flow studies typically use datasets from a single time period (and those few studies that utilize multi-period data do not utilize methodologies that adjust for the longitudinal nature of the samples), this study conducts an empirical analysis using a longitudinal data panel analysis methodology. This approach also facilitates the examination of possible time-lags in the relationship between changes in cash flow and firm financial performance. Finally, there is a question of endogeneity regarding whether a firm's cash flow management strategy impacts the firm's performance or whether the cash flow positions are a byproduct of a firm's performance (Deloof, 2003). This issue is examined by conducting Granger causality tests to shed light on the possible direction of the relationship between cash flow management actions and changes in performance. This analysis focuses on manufacturing firms that are publicly traded on the U.S. stock exchanges. This focus was chosen because manufacturers' positions in the middle of integrated supply chains allow them to influence or be influenced by both suppliers and customers (Swaminathan et al., 1998). These interactions with both suppliers and customers also provide substantial opportunities for payment term flexibility between the parties. Additionally, compared to downstream supply chain partners, manufacturers typically have more inventory flexibility in that they can choose whether to hold inventory as raw materials, work in process, or finished goods (Capkun et al., 2009). The next section discusses prior literature and develops the theoretical framework. The third section discusses the data sample and the study methodology and the fourth section presents the results. The final two sections discuss the implications of the findings, the limitations of the study, and possible research extensions.

This research into the relationships between changes in cash flow management and firm performance proposes an enriched method for measuring and managing a firm's cash positions. The examination of the temporal impacts of changing these metrics shows ΔOCC to be a superior tool for managers. Similarly, both ΔDSO and ΔDIO were shown to be effective measures for managing cash flows; however, ΔDPO was not found to be related significantly to firm performance changes. Managers may use these measures and metrics in two ways: (i) they should monitor ΔDSO, ΔDIO, and ΔOCC, as changes in these indicators are likely to impact the firm's performance; and (ii) they should develop management strategies to manipulate these levers to improve firm performance. This study is limited in that it examines only manufacturing firms. Future extensions of this work might examine if the cash flow management policies of firms in other areas of the supply chain have similar relationships with firm performance. In addition, an investigation to further explore the directional nature of the relationship between inventory and performance changes might extend the understanding of the role that cash flow management may play in the success of firms.