دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 76686
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

عدم اطمینان محیطی، آینده نگری و تصمیم گیری استراتژیک: مطالعه یکپارچه

عنوان انگلیسی
Environmental uncertainty, foresight and strategic decision making: An integrated study
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
76686 2012 12 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 79, Issue 3, March 2012, Pages 436–447

ترجمه کلمات کلیدی
عدم قطعیت؛ تصمیم گیری استراتژیک؛ آینده نگری استراتژیک؛ برنامه ریزی؛ یادگیری
کلمات کلیدی انگلیسی
Uncertainty; Strategic decision making; Strategic foresight; Planning; Learning
پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  عدم اطمینان محیطی، آینده نگری و تصمیم گیری استراتژیک: مطالعه یکپارچه

چکیده انگلیسی

This paper explores how the foresight practices and techniques that might be used for coping with environmental uncertainty are coordinated throughout large corporations and how their results are used for supporting strategic decision making. Based on an in-depth and multiple study of several companies, we analyse the main characteristics of environmental uncertainty - complexity and dynamism - that shape companies’ approaches to strategic foresight and uncertainty management. We explore the impact of growing complexity and dynamism on these approaches and the role of prediction and control in their design and implementation. We outline a conceptual framework for strategic foresight activities - and their relationships with decision making under uncertainty - as a planned learning process about the future which enables managers not to know opportunities and threats in advance, but to detect them more promptly and to react more effectively as soon as they start emerging.