درک نتایج آینده نگری هنجاری: توسعه سناریو و اثر جهل پوشش

The article approaches the question of the extent to and the ways in which the participatory construction of normative narratives in system foresight influences the shape of the outcomes. We discuss foresight as a system of inquiry into decision-making problems characterized by three key features — distancing, holism, and participation-intensiveness. We put forward the hypothesis that participative approaches to normative scenario development, which are structurally similar to a Rawlsian “original position” setup, generate a concern with the procedural arrangements governing the future world in the scenario, rather than simply with the events or states in the story of the future. This concern with “constitutional basics” may be regarded as an expression of participants' attempt to ensure that, in the future world, each party will have a seat at the table and a voice in the conversation. As a result, the construction of normative narratives may be interpreted in terms of an effort to smooth out tensions that are inevitably embedded in scenarios. The hypothesis is illustrated, in the article's final section, with a recent exercise on the future of higher education.