سیستم عامل آینده نگری آنلاین: مدارک و شواهد برای تاثیر آنها بر برنامه ریزی سناریو و آینده نگری استراتژیک

Developments in social media, Web 2.0 and crowdsourcing have enabled new forms of methodological innovation in both the social and natural sciences. To date, relatively little attention has been given to how these approaches impact scenario planning and strategic foresight, especially in public projects designed to engage multiple stakeholders. This article explores the role that online approaches may play in qualitative scenario planning, using data from five empirical case studies. Two categories of measures were used to compare results between cases; participation characteristics, such as the number and type of participants involved, and interaction characteristics, such as the number of variables and opinions incorporated, the mechanisms of analysis, etc. The systems studied were found to have substantial impact on the early stages of the scenario process, in particular: increased participation in terms of both amount and diversity, increased volume and speed of data collected and analyzed, increased transparency around driver selection and analysis, and decreased overall cost of project administration. These results are discussed in the context of emerging issues and opportunities for scenario planning, particularly for public scenario projects, and how such tools and platforms might change scenario practice over time.