نقش سناریو در آینده نگری استراتژیک

This article discusses the role of scenarios in strategic foresight. It starts by discussing the need for strategic foresight over the next decade, and a set of qualities, structures and processes that facilitate the use of strategic foresight for renewal. The author describes two roles of scenarios in supporting these processes — scenarios as mental models, and through providing a well-understood methodology that permits exploration of the future. Three key case studies from different fields, such as financial services and pharmaceuticals, enhance the description of the methods.