پیش بینی از روند توسعه در صنعت ماشین آلات تایوان

Industry transformation oriented toward high technology is being expected in the next 10 years by targeting Taiwan becoming an island of the technology. The machinery industry, which has been playing a vital role in Taiwan's economic development in the past, should be continuously emphasized during the course of the future development. This paper presents a detailed study on the future development of Taiwan's machinery industry along with the valuable proposals to the government policy and the investment strategy to the private sectors. The 10-year forecasting survey based on the strength, weakness, opportunity and threats (SWOT) analysis was made through an integrated professional team using the Delphi method. The derived results of market growth forecasting and the projected high potential products are further elaborated in the paper.

Machinery industry is important in Taiwan's overall industry development. The statistics in 1997 indicated that there were about 11,500 machinery factories, accounting for 14.8% of the total manufacturing industry. There were more than 145,000 people employed in this industry. The production value of machinery industry was about US$14.4 billion, representing 6.1% of Taiwan's total production value. The machinery export was US$9.7 billion, or about 8% of total exports. The export of leather shoes manufacturing machinery was second in the world with 23.6% market share, while woodworking machinery was third with 15%, and machine tool was fifth with 6%. Meanwhile, molds and plastic machinery was in the 6th place [1] (see Table 1

After three rounds, we know that Taiwan's machinery industry may reach US$23.9 billion. The forecasting indicates the top 15 products with the highest average growth rate are: linear motors (21.8%), high-speed cutting machine tools (19.9%), micromachinery (17.8%), linear guides (17.8%), PC-based controllers (16.7%), environmental protection machinery (15.3%), all electric injection molding machinery (14.9%), PC-based machine tools (13.2%), IC rapid thermal processor (12.7%), industrial robots (12.6%), semisolid metal molding machinery (12.6%), medical care equipment (12.6%), liquid crystal display (LCD) manufacturing equipment (12.4%), and high-speed spindle (11.8%). Table 8 presents that the above top 15 machinery products with great potential market could be considered as the major business development directions and references for the government policy decision in resources allocation. The detailed discussion for each product is available in the table.