پیوند توسعه مالی و مصرف انرژی در مالزی : تجزیه و تحلیل سری های زمانی چند متغیره

Despite a bourgeoning literature on the existence of long run relationship between consumption of energy and economic growth, results on the direction of causality so far, remain elusive. A growing economy needs more energy, which is exacerbated by growing population. Evidence suggests that financial development can reduce energy use by increasing energy efficiency. Economic growth and energy consumption in Malaysia have been rising in tandem over the past several years. The three public policy objectives of Malaysia are: economic progress, population growth and financial development. It is of interest to the policymakers to understand the dynamic interrelation among the stated objectives. The paper explores the existence of a long run relation among energy use, aggregate production, financial development and population in Malaysia; and causality using the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results suggest that energy consumption is influenced by economic growth and financial development, both in the short and the long run, but the population–energy relation holds only in the long run. The findings have important policy implications for balancing economic growth vis-à-vis energy consumption for Malaysia, as well as other emerging nations.

The nexus between economic growth and energy consumption has been a subject of considerable academic scrutiny over the past few decades. Even so, the available evidence on the direction of the causality so far has been inconclusive. As the race for economic prosperity by major emerging nations intensifies, the importance of the topic will grow further. Energy is the key to the production of goods and services. Many emerging economies are growing at a pace much faster than were projected earlier. This has created a spurt in the demand for energy. Although 2009 saw global economic recession, the major energy consuming nations in Asia – China and India – have hardly been affected. The International Energy Agency (IEA) (2009) reports that the global energy use is expected to fall significantly, in 2009, the first time since 1981. However, the demand should be back on the long-term up-trend once economic recovery gathers pace. Barring major policy changes, global demand for primary energy is projected to rise by 40% in 2030 from its 2007 level. Collectively, the non-OECD nations will account for over 90% of this increase. Their share of global primary energy demand will rise from 52% to 63%. China and India will account for over 53% of the increase by 2030. Use of fossil fuels will continue to dominate the scenario, accounting for 77% of the increase. Oil demand is projected to rise from the 85 million barrels per day in 2008 to 105 million in 2030, a 24% rise (World Energy Outlook, 2012). The objective of the present paper is to examine a long run relationship among consumption of energy, financial development, economic growth, and population for Malaysia by implementing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration; and test the direction of causality using the Vector Error Correction Models (VECM). As an important economic player in East Asia, Malaysia has been a poster child for her success in the East Asian region. Since the independence in 1959 the resource rich nation has successfully prosecuted a policy of enviable economic growth. The strategy has paid off. Malaysia boasts of being among the emerging nations with the highest rates of economic growth. However, notable spurt in energy consumption and a concomitant rise in pollutant emissions in recent times have made the choice of Malaysia not only timely but also of much significance. In particular, the paper is motivated by the need to reexamine the findings by Ang (2008) and Masih and Masih (1996a). They used the Johansen–Juselius procedure to examine the Malaysian energy economic growth nexus. From econometric perspectives, we argue that the ARDL bounds testing approach is preferable to other methods due to small sample size.

The paper examines the long run relation among energy consumption, economic growth, financial development and population in Malaysia. To raise the standard of living, more goods are produced and thus more energy is used. Although, developed financial market should favor efficient use of energy, the results so far have been mixed. As an emerging economy, Malaysia is experiencing relatively high rate of economic growth, and a significant spurt in CO2 emission. The present study implements the ARDL approach to cointegration to investigate a long run relation among the above noted series; and the VECM Granger causality to test the direction of causality. The results based on time series data from 1971 to 2009 confirm cointegration among these series. Economic growth raises the demand for energy. The impact of population on energy consumption is positive. In some sense, the paper can be seen as an evaluation of Malaysia's policy to support economic growth by encouraging population growth, and financial development as enunciated in the “Vision 2020”. Since GDP and energy consumption cause each other in the short and the long runs, the interdependence will lead to higher energy consumption. Moreover, population causes energy use in the long run. So, in the absence of a clearly articulated and implemented sustainable development policy, the strategy to achieve the goals of vision 2020 may be difficult without adversely affecting environment in the long run. The finding that financial development leads to energy consumption only in the long run, but energy consumption causes the financial development both in the long and the short run offers some hope. This implies that loans used by both the consumers and the investors will add to energy demand. In the short run Malaysia could benefit from a two pronged policy: promote financial development; and continue the present policy to address the labor shortage.