مدل شبیه سازی پویای تخلیه تحت تاثیر ازدحام بلایا و حوادث ثانویه

Due to the occurrence of secondary disasters in disaster relief, a swarm-based dynamic disaster evacuation simulation model is established to settle the practical difficulties of reducing efficiency in evacuation. And much better simulation results have been achieved than static plans or disorganized autonomous escape scheme. Simulation results show that “to changing the status quo” dynamic evacuation plan is much better than “maintaining the status quo,” the static and self-evacuation plan or autonomous escape behavior for emergency evacuation, especially those with secondary disasters.

Recently, research on the process of people’s evacuation under disasters has become the main focus in emergency management [1,2]. However, the secondary disaster caused by protogenetic disaster hasn’t got comprehensive attention either in rushing to deal with the emergency or providing disaster relief or in theory research. In fact, it will usually induce a new serial of secondary disasters during the protogenetic disaster’s occurrence. Sometimes damages of secondary disaster is more than protogenetic disaster, especially if people only pay attention to the protogenetic disaster instead of secondary disaster during the evacuation, which will lead to decline the efficiency dramatically, and even induce more hurt and death. For example, if we cannot change the evacuation plan, in other words, we continue to evacuate people to the “broken” exit. In this case, we not only cannot evacuate people from “broken” exit, but also may induce more death and hurt due to choosing the wrong path. As we know, the rescue is impossible to predict in advanced in reality. However, computer simulation can take the obligation –“the result of rescue can be surely predicted in advanced”. It can simulate the process of real evacuation, that is to say, to simulate the scenes appear over and over again such as disaster, rescue, disperse, then, it’ll optimize the evacuation plan. The simulation models of the evacuation have two kinds, one uses macroscopical method, the other uses microcosmic method[3]. The microcosmic model can set different parameters and regulations which can emulate the process of the person evacuation more clearly in reality.

In this paper, a swarm-based dynamic disaster evacuation simulation model is proposed to get better simulation results than static plan or autonomous escape. We can get the following conclusion according to the simulation results. For emergency evacuation, we must design a set of “changing the status quo” dynamic evacuation plan, rather than sticking to the static evacuation plan of “maintaining the status quo”, or putting the hope on the autonomous escape, especially those with secondary disaster