تجزیه و تحلیل سناریو فرایندهای مدیریت در پیشگیری و از بین بردن پیامدهای بلایای بشری

The main stages and technology of formation of scenarios for the development of man-made disasters and emergencies are considered. The processes of modelling and synthesis of alternative scenarios for the development of ES are proposed to be implemented using the theory of functional sign graphs. An example of practical use of the scenario analysis methodology in the process of solving the problem of management the consequences of emergencies in a land production facility (building) is given.