رابطه علیت کوتاه مدت و بلند مدت بین مصرف انرژی و رشد اقتصادی : مدارک و شواهد در سراسر مناطق در چین

The relationship between energy consumption and economic growth has created a large body of research in the energy-economics literature. In this paper, we investigate such a relation in the case of Chinese regions from 1995 to 2009. The majority of previous studies have ignored the regional dimension and the cross-sectional dependence of provinces. Besides, different energy policies adopted by the government have influenced energy intensity over time, showing improvement in the 1990s and deterioration from 2000 onwards. Thus, it is necessary to examine these two periods separately. Moreover, a detailed disaggregation of total energy consumption into electricity, coal, coke, and crude oil consumption and its linkage with economic growth may provide new insights for the design of energy policy across Chinese regions. We use panel techniques to test the direction of the causality in the long- and short-run between these different types of energy consumption and economic growth. Our results are mixed from 1995 to 2009 due the aforementioned break around 1999. However, in all cases our estimations provide empirical evidence that from 1999 to 2009 there is unidirectional causation from economic growth to energy consumption in the long-run. Therefore, energy-saving policies can be adopted without interrupting the path of growth.

The reduction of greenhouse gas emissions is one of the most important concerns across countries. However, there is little consensus among developed economies on the way to meet international commitments until developing countries such as India and China commit themselves to alleviate climate change [1]. This is relevant due to the rising importance of these countries in the contribution to global warming given their fast economic growth and increasing demand for energy resources. As is well-known one way to reduce emissions is to cut energy consumption. However, in the case of developing countries this aim is conditioned by economic development. Often these economies face the dilemma of promoting energy-saving measures at the expense of economic growth. Thus, an essential empirical investigation is whether energy consumption is a consequence or a cause of economic growth. Conclusions of such analysis are relevant not only for the design of energy policies to mitigate global warming, but also to link these policies with economic development and the welfare of the whole population. In addition, investigating the direction of the causality between energy consumption and economic growth may help to clarify the economic model that prevails in this relationship. In other words, whether energy consumption is seen as an input – and in this case, energy influences economic growth – and therefore a production model is supported by the data, or by contrast is considered a good – and economic growth causes energy consumption following a demand model.

Analyzing the direction of causality between energy consumption and economic growth has created a large body of empirical research, yet with conflicting results. Different countries, time periods, variables included in the model and econometric methods can account for those mixed results. In this paper, we apply recent panel cointegration techniques, allowing for cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity between regions whenever possible, to investigate the direction of the causality between energy and economic growth in China over the period 1995–2009. We also examine the sub-period 1999–2009 to consider the effect of policy changes around 1999–2000. Conclusions from this analysis are useful to clarify whether the implementation of energy-saving measures in China can smooth the path of economic growth, or by contrast whether suitable policies can be adopted to mitigate climate change, and moderate pollution. A novel aspect of our work is that we consider not only total energy consumption, but also coal, coke, oil and electricity to provide a more detailed analysis of such relationships. We also test the direction of causality both in the long and short-run. Our results indicate that causality runs from economic growth to energy variables in the long-run. These results suggest that, when modeling relationships between energy consumption and economic growth, they will best be specified and interpreted as a consumption/demand model. However, empirical evidence in the short-run is mixed. According to our findings, energy-saving measures such as the promotion of technological progress can be adopted to lessen global warming without interrupting the path of economic growth.