چارچوب نظری برای تحلیل عدم اطمینان درازمدت در حمل و نقل

Long-term forecasts in shipping have continued to draw interest among researchers and industry all along the post-war period; they have been often wide-off the mark also. It was through the “unknown-unknowns”, a concept put forward during the Iraq war, that a very different picture of the maritime world was formed very much away from a linear progression of post-WWII trends. The authors discuss the limitations of long-term forecasts related to shipping in the context of the extent and sources of uncertainty which affect the demand and supply environment of the industry. Proposing a classification of risk and of sources of uncertainty in shipping by nature and time-horizon, the authors proceed to a historical benchmarking back to – and including – 1989, just as the division of most of the world in two opposing politico-economic blocks ended. Next, the analysis points to the range of challenges ahead over an equivalent time-span leading to the end of the 2030’s. The authors conclude emphasising the need to focus on the nature of consequences to increase the strength of shipping firms against adverse outcomes of once safely projected trends or one-off unforeseeable events such as “Black Swan” ones, as termed by Taleb.