آلی یا معمولی؟ فناوری پرورش لبنیات مطلوب در نظام سهمیه شیر اتحادیه اروپا و یارانه های آلی

This paper assesses the competitiveness of organic and conventional dairy farms under different milk market and organic farming policy scenarios. We use a DEA-based model to estimate for each policy scenario the sample farms’ profit potential in both technologies. The model enables identification of a farm’s optimal technology based on its input–output observations. The empirical analysis is based on the annual accounts of 1300 Bavarian dairy farms. Results indicate that approximately 69% (78%) of the organic (conventional) farms have chosen their optimal farming system. The remaining organic (conventional) farmers could increase their profit on average by roughly 6% (10%) by switching to the other technology. Abolishment of the EU milk quota results in a considerable decline in the number of sample farms for which organic farming is the optimal technology, suggesting that, ceteris paribus, organic dairy farms may lose competitive advantage with the deregulation of the EU’s milk market regime in 2015. Organic maintenance payments more than double the number of farms with a higher earning potential in organic farming, but their effectiveness could decline when the milk quota is abolished.

Over the past 10 years, the number of organic farms in the European Union has more than doubled to about 190,000 certified organic farms in 2008 (Eurostat, 2010), representing a significant share of farms and agricultural land. On the other hand, there is evidence of organic farmers abandoning their farming system and reverting to conventional farming methods (Läpple, 2010 and DEFRA, 2002). From a farmer’s point of view, this raises the question of whether he or she has chosen the right technology. Policy makers may wish to know how the competitive position of organic and conventional farming systems is affected by agricultural policies and changes to them. In EU agriculture, profits from dairy farming are influenced by the EU’s milk quota regime which will be discontinued in 2015. Furthermore, most EU Member States have been actively encouraging farmers to adopt organic farming practices through organic aid schemes in the Second Pillar of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP). Some Members States and regions are currently considering or have already implemented changes to their organic aid schemes. This raises the question of how such policy changes are likely to affect the earning potential (and thus the relative competitiveness) of organic farming. This paper sets out: • to assess how the competitiveness of organic farming is affected by the abolishment of the EU milk quota or the discontinuation of organic aid and, • to investigate to what extent price adjustments might alleviate the effect of these policy changes. The analysis is based on a Data Envelope Analysis (DEA) model of technology efficiency which enables identification for each farm in the data set of its most profitable technology under alternative policy scenarios. Most comparative studies on organic and conventional farming focus on differences in productivity or technical efficiency (e.g. Tzouvelekas et al., 2001, Oude Lansink et al., 2002, Karagiannis et al., 2005, Madau, 2007, Kumbhakar et al., 2009 and Mayen et al., 2009). By contrast, our model targets profit efficiency, allowing us to compute the increase in farm profit from choosing the optimal (i.e. most profitable) technology. To assess the potential impact of policy changes on the relative competitiveness of organic dairy farming, we compare the shares of sample farms which should apply organic or conventional farming practices in the different policy scenarios. Our analysis is based on the annual accounts of more than 1200 conventional and more than one hundred organic dairy farms in the Federal State of Bavaria, Germany. The lack of reliable studies on the future of organic dairy farming after discontinuation of the EU milk quota makes our empirical analysis valuable for policy makers. It is clear however, that our quantitative estimates for Bavaria cannot be extrapolated to the EU milk sector as a whole. The article is organised into three further sections. Section 2 sets out the conceptual framework of technology efficiency and presents the DEA model for conducting empirical analyses of the earning potential of farms under conventional and organic technology. Section 3 presents the data and the policy scenarios and sets out the results comparing the shares of sample farms which should use conventional or organic technology in the alternative policy settings. Section 4 summarises key results and concludes with a discussion of conceivable policy implications.

We analysed the competitive position of organic and conventional dairy farming under different policy scenarios. We estimated each farm’s profit potential in both technologies by means of DEA to identify a farm’s optimal technology based on input–output observations. In particular, we assessed the potential impact of abandoning the EU milk quota on the relative competitiveness of organic and conventional dairy farming for a sample of Bavarian farms. The lack of reliable studies on the future of organic dairy farming after the end of the milk quota makes our empirical analysis valuable for policy makers. We emphasise however that our findings cannot be extrapolated to the dairy sector as a whole since our data set reflects the regional circumstances of Bavaria. Results indicate that more than two thirds of the organic farmers in the data set and approximately 80% of the conventional farmers have chosen their optimal farming technology under the market and policies conditions of FY 2004/05. The remaining organic (conventional) farmers could increase their profit by around 6% (10%) on average by switching to the other technology. Organic farming turns out to be the optimal technology for approximately one quarter of the sample farms in FY 2004/05. The fact that observed adoption rates were lower may be attributed to personal preferences, risk considerations or the costs of conversion – factors which are not considered by our model. Model results are very sensitive to assumed policy changes. When both the milk quota and organic maintenance aid were removed, organic farming would remain the optimal technology for only 1.2% of the sample farms. Abandoning only organic maintenance payments reduces the number of farms which have the highest profit potential in organic farming to 9.7%, indicating the high effectiveness of these subsidies. In the absence of the milk quota only, organic farming would, ceteris paribus, remain the most profitable technology for only 3.4% of sample farms. This leads us to conclude that the milk quota is even more effective in boosting organic farming than organic maintenance subsidies. As a consequence, organic dairy farming may lose market share when the EU milk quota system is abolished in 2015. The latter effect is likely to be attenuated by an increase in the relative price of organically produced milk following a decline in organic supplies. However, to fully outweigh the impact of quota abolishment on the competitiveness of organic dairy farms the price ratio of organic to conventional milk would have to rise by between 12% and 23%. If promotion of organic agriculture remains a political priority, policy makers will have to reconsider organic support policies as the end of the quota system nears. It is conceivable that adjustments to the price ratio of organic and conventional milk will counterbalance part of the quota removal effect. Our findings suggest that the effectiveness of organic direct payments might decline in the absence of the milk quota, posing a new challenge for the design of targeted organic support policies.