مدل های تصادفی وابسته به دولت: یک چارچوب تصادفی کلی برای مدل سازی سیستم های مهندسی رو به زوال با توجه به فرآیندهای وخامت چندگانه و تعاملات آنها

For performance analysis of deteriorating engineering systems, it is critical to model and incorporate the various deterioration processes and associated uncertainties. This paper proposes state-dependent stochastic models (SDSMs) for modeling the impact of deterioration on the performance of engineering systems. Within the stochastic framework, the change of the system state variables due to different deterioration processes and their interaction is modeled explicitly. As a candidate model to be used in the framework, a new general age and state dependent stochastic model for gradual deterioration is proposed, and its calibration based on data is also discussed. Once the time-variant system state variables are modeled, proper capacity and demand models that take them as inputs can be adopted to fully capture the impact of deterioration processes on the capacity, demand, and other system performances. The proposed framework is first demonstrated through a simple example, and then is used to model the deterioration of an example reinforced concrete (RC) bridge considering deterioration caused by both corrosion and earthquake including their interaction. The results show the importance of modeling the interaction between different deterioration processes, and also verify the advantages of the proposed framework.