مدیریت ریسک پروژه با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی ترکیب تحلیلی و نقشه ریسک

The study first reviews the literature of various contemporary risk management frameworks in order to identify gaps in project risk management knowledge. Then it develops a conceptual risk management framework using combined analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and risk map for managing project risks. The proposed framework has then been applied to a 1500 km oil pipeline construction project in India in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The concerned project stakeholders were involved through focus group discussions for applying the proposed risk management framework in the project under study.

The success parameters for any project are on time completion, within specific budget and with requisite performance (technical requirement). The main barriers for their achievement are the changes in the project environment [1]. The problem multiplies with the size of the project as uncertainties in project outcome increase with size [2]. Large-scale construction projects are exposed to an uncertain environment because of such factors as planning and design complexity, presence of various interest groups (project owner, owner's project group, consultants, contractors, vendors etc.), resources (materials, equipment, funds, etc.) availability, climatic environment, the economic and political environment and statutory regulations [3]. Although risk and uncertainty affect all projects, size can be a major cause of risk [4]. Other risk factors include the complexity of the project, the speed of its construction, the location of project, and its degree of unfamiliarity [5].

Construction projects often fail because of wrong technology selection, poor environmental management plan, political red tape, poor design and specification, wrong implementation methods, poor performance of contractors, and lack of maintaining materials delivery schedule by the suppliers along with many other reasons. The causes of failure could be classified into business risks (external) and operational risks (internal). Unless they are addressed in the early project-planning phase and adequate responses are planned and implemented, projects inevitably fail to achieve their objectives. In the conventional approaches to project appraisal and planning, quite often only business risks are addressed in order to justify the investment. Therefore, as the projects progress with added learning, there is need for additional resources and knowledge in order to accomplish project outcomes as planned, which become impossible in many instances. Analyzing both business and operational risks at the early planning phase of the project helps manage project effectively.