تجزیه و تحلیل مبتنی بر تئوری شبکه ای از تعاملات ریسک در پروژه های بزرگ مهندسی

This paper presents an approach based on network theory to deal with risk interactions in large engineering projects. Indeed, such projects are exposed to numerous and interdependent risks of various nature, which makes their management more difficult. In this paper, a topological analysis based on network theory is presented, which aims at identifying key elements in the structure of interrelated risks potentially affecting a large engineering project. This analysis serves as a powerful complement to classical project risk analysis. Its originality lies in the application of some network theory indicators to the project risk management field. The construction of the risk network requires the involvement of the project manager and other team members assigned to the risk management process. Its interpretation improves their understanding of risks and their potential interactions. The outcomes of the analysis provide a support for decision-making regarding project risk management. An example of application to a real large engineering project is presented. The conclusion is that some new insights can be found about risks, about their interactions and about the global potential behavior of the project.

Projects are usually complex and risky. They require the timely accomplishment of a number of activities, carried out by a number of human and material resources. Unexpected conditions or planning errors may lead to failures which can undermine the successful realization of the project on numerous parameters, like time, cost, scope, quality, safety, security, health, and environment. We refer to such events as project risks, when they are identified, analyzed and treated before they occur. Within the same project, the existence of interrelated risks involves that the occurrence of one risk may trigger one or more other risks with potential propagation phenomena like reaction chains, amplification chains or loops. In this sense, in this paper we talk of risk interdependency between two risks. A consequence of a risk is then triggering of another risk and not the direct impact of the risk itself (e.g., on time, scope or cost), which of course exists but is not the focus here. The consequence of this complexity is a lack of capacity to anticipate and control the behavior of the project.

This paper presents an original network theory-based analysis of interconnected risks in large engineering projects. Network theory indicators are specifically tailored to project risk analysis, in an effort to complement the classical approach with respect to modeling the complexity of interdependent risks. A realistic application on a tramway implementation project is performed with the involvement of the project manager and the team of experts. The results obtained show that the topological analysis by network theory adds value to the classical project risk analysis, in identifying both the important risks and the important risk interactions with respect to their role in the network behavior. This gives additional information for the next step of decision-making, since risks may be considered important for criticality of their impact and/or topological reasons. With respect to the latter, a risk taken individually may be non-critical, but through interactions could become the source of other risks, including some critical ones. Based on the analysis outcomes, a combination of feasible risk mitigation actions are performed on the risk network and the results illustrate the effectiveness of using network theory for project risk analysis. The method is expected to be applicable to a wide set of engineering projects for decision support, including allocating resources for risk mitigation and reassigning risk owners.