دیدگاه سهامدران از درک برآورد هزینه در مدیریت پروژه

Cost overrun is a chronic problem across most projects. While a significant research have been published on this topic, the understanding of the root causes and a clear direction towards improvement remained unexplored. The focus of the past research is mainly on the factors directly or indirectly associated with the project environment and their relative impacts on overall cost performance in projects. In contrast to such traditional approach, this research aimed to establish a conceptual model by identifying the underlying issues associated mainly with the perceptions of the board stakeholders involved over entire lifecycle of projects. Based on a structured interview with a few selective organisations, data was collected and a few rich pictures were developed over every phase of project development. By employing the soft system methodology, the rich pictures were later trasformed into the concept models for potential establishment of a new body of knowledge in the field. Among the findings, it has been revealed that at the project inception stage, political and legislative factors play significant roles in the business case development. Statutory compliance and environmental issues are perceived to be critical in influencing cost performance in projects. The resulting concept model on cost overrun is expected to fill a significant knowledge gap in cost estimation practice across all industry sectors.

A research report focusing on the failure of software projects highlighted a survey where almost one third of sampled projects experienced cost overruns of 150–200%, with an average overrun of 189% of the original cost estimate. Over one third also experienced time overruns of 200–300%, with an average overrun of 222% of the original time estimate (The Standish Group Report, 1995). Similarly, there is a strong consensus among construction industry professionals that the traditional cost estimation approach does not work (Yeo, 1989, Yeo, 1990 and Robinson, 1986). Due to increasing interest among the stakeholders from project owners and suppliers to end user and facility managers in modern construction projects, accurate estimation of cost budgets is a difficult task. Many times there is neither enough data nor adequate time and resources available to prepare an accurate cost estimate. Even when the cost estimate is done correctly, the senior management may determine that the costs are too high resulting in cost reductions without a corresponding reduction of the project scope. Senior level management traditionally provides a top-down cost estimate starting with an understanding of how much there is to allocate to a given project. Unfortunately, the consequences of cost overrun are often borne by the end users (or the public) by way of imposing extra margins on the services delivered. This is particularly evident in the operation of social and economical infrastructure projects delivered through Public–Private-Partnerships (PPP) or Private Finance Initiatives (PFI) across many countries including Australia and the UK. The above factual evidence clearly shows a gap in current cost estimation practices across the board and highlights the need for reconsideration and potentially re-establishment of a concept model. To this effect, the main objective of the research entails understanding the changes of project environment and the emergence of complexity in cost estimating processes in order to assess their impacts on society and the economy and devising strategies for realistic cost management. A conceptual model has been developed by integrating existing and new knowledge in risk management, cost estimating and management processes in projects. By applying the soft system methodology (SSM), cognitive mapping of the decision makers for better understanding of the pathways and potential coping mechanisms for realistic cost planning and controlling practices have been captured (Checkland, 1981 and Winter, 2006). The resulting concept model is expected to provide hands-on training to relevant professionals for the capacity building on the improved cost estimating processes across the industry.

Cost overrun is a chronic problem across most projects. Increasing complexity of modern and involvement of multitude of stakeholders with varied stakes make it nearly impossible for the modern construction projects to avoid cost overruns. While numerous methods and models have been published on the issue of cost overruns, the root cause associated with the project development environment impacting cost performance still remains unexplored. Based on a cognitive mapping philosophy and by applying the soft system methodology (SSM), this research explored all the underlying perceptive factors in order to establish a benchmark for managing cost overruns in project. Based on the rich picture representations and relevant concept models, a conceptual model has been established. The results of the SSM analysis revealed that traditional cost estimating principles are fundamentally inadequate in addressing accuracy in cost managment in modern projects. An early interaction with the key stakeholders and establishment of the clear lines of communications for sharing professional and project based knowledge are crucial over inception phase of projects. The key stakeholders in project inception stage include owner, designer, financier, developer, designer and bidding team. As the project proceeds over to tendering stage, contractor's roles become far more significant in terms of affecting cost performance in project. Incorporation of the contractor's perspectives in terms of legislative and environmental constraints in the estimation process is a crucial element in this tender development stage. Once the project reaches to the initiation stage and proceeds over to planning, execution and handover phases, contractual variations and contract administration become crucial in terms of resulting cost performance. These findings clearly highlight the needs for not being overreliant on the traditional cost-estimating principles but a radical shift in cost estimation and control of complex projects. While the outcome of the current research adds a significant contribution to the current body of knowledge in the cost management practice, the research is not excempted from shortcomings as expected. Among the shortcomings, firstly, the model required further validation with international practices outside the Australian construction projects. Secondly, based on the concept models developed, all the underlying factors need to be tested or hypothesised on relational or structural links in order for the evaluation of the quantitative impacts of each factor on the overall cost performance in the projects. The resulting relational model can then be compared to validate with international practices which can potentially assist in standardising an international practice across the industry. The authors intend to address these two fundamental shortcomings in the near future.