استراتژی کنترل مصرف انرژی منطقه ای چین: مطالعه موردی استان شاندونگ

Controlling coal consumption has become one of the critical energy and environmental measures in China, and Shandong province is the key area of coal consumption control. This study is based on three targets, including air quality improvement, water savings, and energy conservation and emissions reduction, and then adopts the LEAP (Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning System) model to predict Shandong's total coal consumption and its emissions reduction in 2020. Furthermore, it measures the feasibility and concrete path to realize the coal reduction target from three aspects – coal reduction, clean coal utilization and coal substitution. Finally, the quota allocation method is used to breakdown the coal reduction target into various cities and major industries. The results indicate that improving air quality is the primary reason for coal consumption control; coal reduction, clean coal utilization and coal substitution can reduce 36.3, 3.4 and 37.76 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) respectively, thus revealing the possibility of realizing the target of reducing 20 million tce in 2020 compared to 2012. The quota breakdown scheme shows that four cities (Binzhou, Jining, Linyi and Zibo) and three industries (production and supply of electricity and heat industry, coal chemical industry, and ferrous metal smelting and calendaring industry) are the major focus for coal consumption control in Shandong. This study provides valuable suggestions to facilitate the control of coal consumption.