اندازه گیری عدم اطمینان معکوس شبیه سازی راکتور تحت چارچوب بیزی با استفاده از مدل های جایگزین ساخته شده توسط گسترش هرج و مرج چندجملهای

The methods developed here are demonstrated with the Point Reactor Kinetics Equation (PRKE) coupled with lumped parameter thermal-hydraulics feedback model. Three input parameters, external reactivity, Doppler reactivity coefficient and coolant temperature coefficient are modeled as uncertain input parameters. Their uncertainties are inversely quantified based on synthetic experimental data. Compared with the direct numerical simulation, surrogate model by PC expansion shows high efficiency and accuracy. In addition, inverse UQ with Bayesian analysis can calibrate the random input parameters such that the simulation results are in a better agreement with the experimental data.