گاز طبیعی در ماتریس انرژی برزیل: تقاضا برای 1995-2010 و عوامل کاربردی

This paper describes and analyzes the constraints hampering achievement of the 12% share planned for natural gas in Brazil's energy matrix by 2010, and advises policies for reaching that goal on the basis of forecasts and three probable scenarios for the development of the Brazilian economy. The 12% share goal was established in 1993 by the Ministry of Mines and Energy and confirmed in 2000, and is now in full development. The figures used to represent the estimates of natural gas demands in the three scenarios were obtained from the Integrated Energy Planning Model (MIPE—Modelo Integrado de Planejamento Energético), which is a technical and economic forecasting model developed by a group of researchers linked to the Energy Planning Program run by the Graduate Engineering Programs Coordination Unit at the Rio de Janeiro Federal University (COPPE-UFRJ) under the sponsorship of Petrobras (a Brazilian enterprise operating in the oil and gas segment) and Eletrobrás (a Brazilian enterprise in charge of electricity demand planning). The analysis of the constraints take place under the aegis of the objective proposed by the Brazilian Government. The authors suggest specific actions to be taken in four application areas of natural gas: industrial, electric power generation, domestic distribution and vehicular fleet conversions. All the actions proposed encourage the use of a fuel with low environmental impacts and high calorie power, replacing firewood and other polluting fuels and are evaluated relative to the impacts occurring in society, especially from the standpoint of social welfare in a developing country. The necessity of developing the goods and services infrastructure in the country to support the natural gas insertion in the Brazilian energy matrix is also addressed.

Recent studies by the planning bodies of the Ministry of Mines and Energy (MME) associated to the most probable scenarios for the growth of Brazilian industry for the period 1998–2010, clearly show the important role reserved for natural gas as an alternative, quick response to the growing demand for energy, which will be necessary for the viability of sustained development of the country. The subject, of indisputable geopolitical and strategic importance, deserves its growing attention from the government, not only for the availability of the fuel in our production fields and for the incentives to increase its supply by importing, as well as by the appeal of the use of a fine fuel, which makes it the best solution, among the alternatives, to the commitment to increase energy supply and the necessary modernization of Brazilian industry. In order to accomplish what was established by these studies, the Ministry re-affirmed, in the year 2000, through the National Energy Policy Council (CNPE—Conselho Nacional de Polı́tica Energética)1 the strategic target for the reconfiguration of the Brazilian energy matrix, so that natural gas will be responsible for 12% of this matrix up to the year 2010 (Ministério das Minas e Energia e Comissão do Gás Natural, 1992). This target was previously established by the former Gas Commission of the MME in 1992. The actions for its achievement are now under development. The governmental target has as the principal anchor for its viability, the implementation of innumerable projects for the use of natural gas, the most important of which are various thermoelectric power plants, the introduction of natural gas as an industrial fuel, the expansion of the domestic supply networks and the use of natural gas to power vehicles. Taking into account that Brazil is a tropical country, applications in the commercial sector for the generation of air-conditioning from natural gas are also under consideration. The principal reasons for the introduction of natural gas in the energy matrix are related to the exceptional supply of natural gas available in Brazil's neighboring countries such as Bolivia and Argentina (Rosa et al., 1995), from which the use of this supply was made possible by the completion of the 3150 km Bolivia–Brazil gas pipeline in the year 2000 (Passos, 1999).2 The Brazilian own reserves now sums up to 7324.9 billions of cubic feet (Petrobras, 2003) most of which are associated gas located in deep waters at the sea. In order to take advantage of the Argentinean gas, the construction of various gas pipelines are being planned which would permit the implementation of an even more ambitious program known as the Mercosur Energy Integration (see Fig. 1) (Mercosur—Southern Cone Common Market). On the other hand, there is the construction of thermoelectric power plants as an alternative to the heavy investments required for the construction of hydroelectric power plants, which being far from the large urban centers in a country the size of Brazil, implies the construction of costly transmission systems which today is the principal limiting factor in the performance of the Brazilian electrical system. Growing international pressure related to the solution of environmental questions, also favor the introduction of natural gas in the industrial sector as a substitute for fuels such as firewood, still much used in the northern and northeastern regions of Brazil (Santos et al., 2002). This work has as its objective to analyze the constraints and the technical viability for reaching the strategic target proposed by the Federal Government, based on projections for consumption in three economic development scenarios for the period 1995–2010. These consumption projections were obtained from the results of an energy planning model known as MIPE—Modelo Integrado de Planejamento Energético (Tolmasquim et al., 1998b) developed by a team of researchers from the Energy Planning Program run by the Graduate Engineering Programs Coordination Unit at Rio de Janeiro Federal University (COPPE-UFRJ).3 The principal existing constraints for the introduction of natural gas in four consumption sectors—energy generation, industrial, residential and automotive—are analyzed and measures are suggested by the authors to facilitate the attainment of the government's target. These segments are considered today as the main ones for concentrating strategies with the objective of the insertion of natural gas into the Brazilian energy matrix. The feasibility of the measures suggested is analyzed under the political, economical and social aspects as well as is emphasized the necessity of concrete actions to foster technological expertise and the growth of the goods and services industries in the country as to support the introduction of natural gas in those segments.

Although the results produced by the Integrated Energy Planning Model (MIPE) indicate that natural gas fails to achieve the share in Brazil's energy matrix targeted by Government entities, it nevertheless varies significantly, reaching over 400% in some cases, with elasticity of over 6.0×GDP in all scenarios. It should be stressed that the results for natural gas are somewhat conservative, as they do not include recent efforts to encourage wider use of this new fuel in the energy matrix. With the start-up of commercial operations by the Bolivia–Brazil Gas Pipeline, many projects still on the drawing board should become a reality. These initiatives may trigger a rapid upsurge in the share held by natural gas in this matrix, and this is the very reason why Petrobras figures show a more optimistic prospect. It is important to stress the transition period that will occur in Brazil in the years to come. In January 2003 José Ignácio Lula da Silva, a laborforce man replaced the neo-liberal Fernando Henrique Cardoso as President of Brazil. The new Government established as the main goals the decrease of unemployment, the emphasis in developing the local industry and a huge social program named “Fome Zero” (Zero Hunger Program) aiming to figure out a crucial problem of starving that lay upon more than 45 million Brazilians.18 In such a framework, taking into account the considerable importance of Petrobras in the development of industry in Brazil as a whole its strength in creating direct and indirect work positions, the company's figures for the Investment Program and demand of natural gas shall be considered reliable. These numbers were released for the public last June (Petrobras, 2003). The growth of natural gas in the energy matrix will slow down after 2007, as all the planned thermopower plants and other important projects should already be concluded by then. In parallel to technological marketing efforts disseminating the use of natural gas, the activities of a Gas Technologies Network fostering the development of applied research projects designed to discover new uses for gas seem to be of the utmost importance, provided that they are financed by interested enterprises and based on schedules limited to no more than 24 months for patent registration. This should provide leverage for new markets and speed up the maturation rate of the industry, which should peak within no more than 10–15 years. In countries such as Canada, the USA, Italy and the Netherlands—where natural gas holds a large share in the energy matrix and has been a reality for more than 50 years—the steady flow of applied research projects is constantly discovering new uses, enhancing its competitiveness compared to other energy sources. It is important to recall that the Government target was established in 1993 by what was then the Gas Commission under the MME. In the forecasts drawn up at that time, an economic shock was expected that would curb spiraling inflation, stipulating an acceptable rate for gas with an efficient fiscal and monetary policy, and implementing an effective privatization program. Brazil would return to growth, and an alternative source of energy would be needed to underpin this non-traditional expansion, off the usual route of boosting hydropower supplies or expanding Brazil's oil refining segment. As several problems have occurred, such as the delay in the preparation and maturation of the Real Economic Stabilization Plan, postponed fiscal adjustments, and the maintenance of the artificial foreign exchange anchor to protect the currency (which has severely hobbled the export capacity of Brazilian industry), in addition to ill-matched privatization processes and the implementation of the Regulator Agencies, it proved necessary to review this target in 2000, based on a fresh list of variables. The target was confirmed mainly due to the success of the Real Economic Stabilization Plan which managed to control inflation below 5% per year. Under the current scenarios, we are of the opinion that the proposed target is still feasible, focusing a new role of gas driven thermoplants and emphasizing the entrance of natural gas in the industrial and vehicular segments. Anyway, convincing results should be presented through establishing an economic policy that urges tax reform and a keener competitive edge for Brazilian products in order to build up investor confidence and release funds that are already available through international entities for investment in infrastructure projects, such as the thermopower plants. This seems to be in accordance to the directions of the new Government. The fundamental question of natural gas supply in Brazil is also important in the sense of guaranteeing, in a sustainable manner, the actions required for its insertion in the energy matrix. In principal these actions might be considered a little late if compared to the experiences of other countries, but it must be understood that natural gas will never have the same share in Brazil as it has in other, richer, countries which normally have a demand stimulated by a need for domestic heating. Currently, Brazil has a well established supply of imported gas, for which the Bolivia–Brazil gas pipeline system was built, linking Bolivia to São Paulo and to Rio Grande do Sul and completing the network up to Belo Horizonte, as Rio de Janeiro was already connected to São Paulo. In the future, the growing demand for natural gas will certainly depend on importing great volumes of gas from Bolivia and Argentina to the South East region and of LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) to the North East; the North will be supplied by gas from the Urucu Basin (explored by Petrobras) which could reach the North East. In this way, the Bolivia–Brazil pipeline assumes, as was imagined at the time of its conception, the role of the largest common interest infrastructure project in Latin America. In the matter of the acquisition of new volumes of gas from neighboring countries in the future, Brazil will need to carefully study the position of the United States in the market. The USA has 3.2% of the world reserves and its consumption is the largest in the world (25.6% of the total). Considering the level of reserves and production the life expectation of the reserves is only 9.2 years which might be increased by new discoveries (Fantine, 2003). Thus the USA will compete for imports of natural gas with Japan, South Korea and China which could become a large purchaser of this energy source. Europe will also be a competitor, as today it is practically dependant on imports and has a demand (19.5% of the world total) close to that of North America. This means that it will seek to guarantee reserves from Latin America, and become a great competitor with Brazil. In order to have an idea of the scale of the markets, USA consumes 1700 million Nm3/day of gas per day, that is 616 billion m3 per year, or to put it another way, the equivalent of the entire reserves of Bolivia or Argentina.19 Consequently, the agreements that the USA will have to make from now on will practically mean guaranteeing a large part of the world reserves for itself. It is important to understand that the demand for gas reacts quickly and jointly with the increase in the economic growth indexes, both in the growth of demand for electricity, which favors gas turbine generation and industrial demand. With the new Government recently installed in the country, the question of thermoelectricity and the investments in hydroelectric power plants will certainly be reviewed, in an attempt to concentrate the use of thermoelectric power plants to supplement the deficits of rainfall and peaks in demand. This will require a complete change in the current model for the electricity sector, which is being thoroughly studied. Emphasis will also be given to distributed generation of electricity and to co-generation, progressively creating a market for natural gas. Taking into account the high popular approval index of the new Government (more than 53 million people voted for Lula in the last election) today there is a strong expectation throughout the country that there will be economic progress in Brazil far superior to that of last decades. This is the very reason why to Brazilians, natural gas energy means that link to the future, considering the prospects of having a modern, clean and fair-priced energy source to fuel development, create workplaces and help foster the improvement of social welfare.