تجزیه و تحلیل سیستم ها و انتقال پایدار فن آوری های انرژی تجدید پذیر:تمرکز بر مناطق دور افتاده از آفریقا

Sustainable energy provision is regarded as one of the most significant challenges facing the realm of development, especially in Africa where large proportions of the population still lack access to energy services. Although there have been much efforts to address these problems with renewable energy technologies, there have also been substantial failures and problems. The Intermediate Technology Development Group (ITDG) has developed a manual that seeks to address these implementation issues. The Renewable Energy for Sustainable Rural Livelihoods workgroup has also developed such a framework, termed SURE, which is a multi-criteria decision analysis modelling tool. Both of these frameworks rely heavily on the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach and emphasise the need to rigorously analyse the sub-systems where technologies are to be introduced. These two frameworks have been integrated and assessed in terms of their applicability for the South African rural renewable energy landscape through a Delphi study conducted with several experts in the energy sector. The results indicate that the integrated framework is suitable for the South African context, with additions to the ITDG and SURE frameworks suggested. Finally the paper highlights a potential concern in the South African renewable energy industry in that technology assessment methods that are utilised in practise do not incorporate the concepts of sustainability science adequately; this must be addressed through further case study research efforts.

In light of the almost universal acceptance of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) [1], the growing awareness of climate change [2], and an increasing concern of an oil peak as oil prices continue in a general upward direction [3], the search for renewable energy (RE) has become increasingly important [4]. Especially in rural areas of Africa, where the bulk of the continent's poor still find themselves, the potential of RE to address the challenges of energy poverty and meeting the 2015 targets of the MDGs, has been highlighted [5]. In South Africa, for example, the national government views RE as a means to reach its constitutional commitments made through the mechanism of human rights in terms of access to electricity for all citizens [6], whilst alleviating the perceived enormous costs involved with utility-based grid provision in rural areas [7]. Also, a target of 10,000 GWh of energy to be produced from renewables by 2013, has been set [8]. Despite this enormous drive for renewable energy, literature suggests that renewable energy projects are rather prone to failure, especially in remote areas [9]. The international experience of the World Bank Group [10] highlights the fact that the interaction between society and renewable energy technology is one of the critical factors of success that needs to be actively managed if sustainable energy development is to be achieved. Some of the prevailing challenges listed include: “…perceived financial and political risks, insufficient institutional capacity to implement projects, weak or inadequate regulatory frameworks, and limited understanding of what is feasible on the ground”. An in-depth study of renewable energy models in Southern Africa confirms this realisation [11], and highlights that socio-political factors are on par with economic and technical aspects when it comes to the sustainability of renewable energy projects. These, and other studies [12], suggest that there are truly significant challenges to transferring renewable energy to rural areas. A holistic, integrated approach to rural renewable energy delivery is subsequently needed. Identifying what such an approach may look like was the purpose of a literature study. The primary objective of this paper is to identify a framework of such an approach. The paper further evaluates the framework through a Delphi methodology that engaged experts from across the South African renewable energy landscape.

Rural poverty remains an important undeniable part of African society. Energy, in all of its forms, is needed to alleviate the rural poverty characteristics of the region. However, a literature review has revealed that the actual delivery of energy to those most in need of it is a very complicated matter, more often than not leading to trust-shattering failures. A study, summarised in this paper, subsequently set out to assess the ITDG and SURE frameworks that have been introduced to facilitate the sustainable implementation of renewable energy technologies in rural areas, but in the South African context. The study utilised experienced individuals in the South African renewable energy industry through the Delphi research methodology. The responses ascertain that the systems analysis approach, that is the Sustainable Livelihoods foundation of the frameworks, is indeed fundamental to the sustainable transfer of renewable energy technologies into remote areas of Africa. By integrating these two frameworks then more robust, community-based implementation strategies may be formulated. The study confirmed the struggle between the forces of the market and the state in development, which has been identified in literature. This may be assigned to the profiles of the study participants that represented the private sector more, i.e. a market-fundamentalist perspective. Thereby the study highlights a potential concern in that renewable energy systems are still most often designed with only financial and technological considerations in mind. Because renewable energy projects, in Africa, are largely influenced by governments, NGO's and/or international agencies, the responses from the Delphi participants were mostly in line with what is being propagated in rural renewable energy literature and public rhetoric, but analyses methods in the Energy Services & Technology Choice section of the integrated framework were favoured by those that often drive these projects. It is therefore concluded that much is still required to enhance sustainability science thinking in renewable energy technology research and development, and specifically in technology assessment methods that are appropriate to the research and development phases of technology management value chains in general. Additional cases studies are required to refine and verify systems analyses and technology assessment frameworks.