پشتیبانی از تصمیم گیری برای اولویت فن آوری های انرژی در برابر قییمت بالای نفت:رویکرد فرآیند تحلیلی سلسله مراتبی فازی

To provide national energy security in the 21st century, establishing a long-term strategic energy technology development is essential through selection and specialization. We established a strategic energy technology roadmap (ETRM) taking economic spin-offs, commercial potential, inner capacity, and technical spin-off into account. In this research, we suggest an integrated multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) approach, which is composed of more than two criteria as the assessment of the optimal alternatives and solutions in the real world with the fuzzy theory and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), to prioritize the weights of energy technologies of ETRM as we allocate R&D budget using a fuzzy analytic hierarchy process. Building technology is the most preferred technology in the sector of energy technologies against high oil prices. And the coal technology and transportation technology follows and take the 2nd and 3rd place with the fuzzy AHP approach.

Korea has been easily affected by oil prices change as Korea is the 10th largest energy consuming nation in the world. Moreover, Korea depends over 98% of consumed energy resources on import. The interests of energy technology development have been increasing by dint of her poor natural resources. In addition, a strategic energy technology development is the ultimate alternative to breakthrough Korea's energy status from a view point of her national energy security. We establish the strategic energy technology roadmap for coping with upcoming 10 years from 2006 to 2015 as an aspect of energy technology development (Lee, Mogi, & Kim, 2009a). A strategic energy technology development can be one of the best alternatives to solve and cope with Korean energy environments, ETRM is meaningful guidelines to drive well focused energy technology development. We analyzed the world energy outlook to make ETRM and provide energy policy directions in 2005(Lee & Kim, 2005). ETRM focused on the strategic energy technology development considering Korean energy status including economic spin-offs, commercial potential, inner capacity, and technical spin-off. ETRM supplies primary energy technologies to be developed with a long-term view point. We suggest Korean long-term directions and the strategy of energy technology development through ETRM. Technology roadmap has been gaining in popularity as supporting the strategy of developing technology. TRM has been developed with applying to various levels from academics to industry. The main purpose of this research is to prioritize the weights of energy technology against high oil prices in the ETRM as we allocate R&D budget strategically. We use the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, which integrates the fuzzy theory into the AHP approach, to generate the weights of energy technology against high oil prices of the ETRM. This paper is composed as follows: Section 2 presents the concept of fuzzy sets and numbers. Section 3 includes fuzzy AHP process. Section 4 presents hierarchy of criteria and execution flow chart. Section 5 describes the classification of energy technologies against high oil prices in ETRM. Section 6 shows the numerical examples of energy technologies against high oil prices in ETRM. Finally, Section 7 presents the conclusion.

ETRM is a long-term strategic plan coping with 10 years from 2006 to 2015. We focus on the prioritization of the strategic energy technology development as the only government invested research institute related to develop energy technologies with well focused R&D and the production of world class research outcomes, which contribute to the commercialization and transfer for energy technology in domestic or overseas companies, instead of outputs, which are just the quantitative of SCI papers and patents. We need to allocate our finite R&D budgets with strategic approach. In this research, we prioritize the energy technologies against high oil prices in the ETRM by using the fuzzy AHP approach. It reflects the human thoughts with vagueness of real world decision making problems comparing with AHP, which evaluates the weights with crisp numbers. We use the fuzzy AHP approach to assess and prioritize the strategic energy technology development in the sector of energy policy for the first time. The results of this research are calculated by a scientific procedure, which is one of MCDM method. This study also provides the optimal alternatives with Korean policy makers as the assessment of energy technology against high oil prices in the ETRM. In addition, this approach, which uses the fuzzy AHP method, can be used in the various sectors including energy policy making, decision making, and technology management in the real world problems usefully. For further study, we will carry out the integrated fuzzy AHP and DEA approach, which measures the relative efficiency of energy technologies integrating multiple input and output variables simultaneously from an econometric view point (Lee et al., 2008c, Lee et al., 2008d, Lee et al., 2009b and Lee, Mogi, Koike, et al., 2009).