برق رسانی روستایی با منابع تجدیدپذیر: ارزیابی پایداری از خارج از شبکه مینی هیبریدی سیستم های تکنولوژیکی در زمینه های آفریقایی

The investigation summarised in this paper applied a sustainability assessment methodology on a renewable energy technological system in a rural village project that was commissioned by the South African Department of Minerals and Energy. The project comprised of wind, solar and lead-acid battery energy storage technologies that were implemented as a mini-hybrid off-grid electrification system for the village. The sustainability assessment methodology predicts the outcomes of such interventions by way of a learning model using discipline experts in the fields of economics, sociology, ecosystem sustainability, institutional governance, and the physics and chemistry of energy conversion processes. The comparison of the project's outcomes with a South African sustainable development framework shows that the specific village renewable off-grid electrification system is not viable. The main reason is that charges for electricity supply costs in village grids are too high for available subsidies; the economies of scale for renewable energy supply technologies favour national grids. The failure of the integrated system may also be attributable to the complexity of the social-institutional sub-system, which resulted in uncertainty for project planners and system designers, and the lack of resilience of the technological system to demands from the socio-economic and institutional sub-systems. Policy-related recommendations are made accordingly.

The South African governance system is developing national measures of sustainability. For example, the Millennium Development Goals are pursued to reduce widespread poverty by 2015 [1]. The post Kyoto 2012 commitments to low-carbon technologies to mitigate the effects of climate change are based on renewable energies, which are to be supported by a carbon tax [2]. In terms of mitigation, the application of (energy) technological innovation to meet the objectives of sustainable development and the conditions for sustainability has been stressed [3], [4] and [5]; a model, based on the principles of sustainability science (see Table 1), has been developed that can be used to assess the sustainability of such technologies (see Fig. 1) [5]. The model integrates: • A life cycle perspective [4] and systems thinking, i.e. systems provide feedback loops and are self-correcting [6]. • Learning methods for the management of information in the paradigm of sustainable development [5]. • Conditions for sustainability to reduce the complexity of systems by clarifying the magnitude of cause and effect on systems, so that priorities can be allocated [5]. • Technology innovation and what is feasible within constraints of time, finances and institutions [3] and [4]. The model to prioritise assessable sustainability indicators for renewable energy systems initiates with a comprehensive set of sustainable development indicators that are deemed appropriate for the context of integrated renewable energy technological systems under investigation. Only those indicators that are controllable by decision-makers in the context of an integrated technological system, and specifically those that are expected, by the technological sub-system analysts, to be effected through the implementation of the technological sub-system, are considered further (#1 in Fig. 1). The remainder of the approach is based on the Kolb learning cycle of experience, reflection, conceptualisation and planning [7]. First, the expertise of the technological sub-system analysts, with the expertise of the sustainability of the economic, environmental, institutional and social sub-systems, also termed holons [8], are used interchangeably through a sub-learning cycle to [5]: • Define a specific system, as a framework, in terms of technology–economic–social–ecological–institution interactions, including the boundaries of the system, and important resilience considerations; and • Establish a hierarchy of controllable indicators that may be affected in terms of their respective importance to ensure the sustainability, as defined by the concepts of Table 1, of the investigated technology–economic–social–ecological–institution system. The outcome is an initial set of prioritised indicators for each of the technology, economic, social, ecological, and institutional sub-systems or holons according to the overall system sustainability, as perceived by the sustainability expertises (#2 of Fig. 1). The technology holon analysts then re-evaluate, through a number of sub-cycles, the site-specific information to determine which indicators are, potentially, assessable for the specific technological system under investigation (#3 of Fig. 1). Thereafter, the different stakeholders of the technology–economic–social–ecological–institution system are engaged to highlight the key aspects of the integrated system to prioritise the indicators and identify aspects of the overall system that may not have been included in the initial set of indicators (#4 of Fig. 1). Further learning cycles (2 → 3→4 → 2) are utilised to facilitate the transdisciplinarity prioritisation of the key set of indicators. Finally, and considering the market uptake of innovation [9], multiple technology–economic–social–ecological–institution systems at regional, national and international levels may result in different sets of prioritised assessable indicators through a continuous learning process. The main objective of the investigation summarised in this paper was to apply the introduced model on a rural mini-hybrid off-grid electrification system to determine the sustainability performance of such systems in the African context. Thereby policy makers may be informed as to the key aspects that drive the sustainability of mini-hybrid off-grid renewable energy systems.

The investigation summarised in this paper set out to assess the sustainability of renewable energy technologies for off-grid applications, by applying an introduced learning model. The investigation focused on a rural village in the Eastern Cape Province of South Africa where a renewable energy system was implemented. The complex interactions between the technological, economic, social, ecological, and institutional sub-system were demonstrated through the case study. The vulnerability of the overall system to issues such as trust and ownership was highlighted. Such issues emphasize that transdisciplinarity understanding is required by renewable energy technology designers to reduce uncertainty and improve the sustainability of technological interventions. Apart from technical aspects a holistic understanding of energy needs and implications, where a technology is to be introduced, is essential. The understating of implications or changes in the integrated system over time, in turn, could identify adaptive strategies for the management of renewable energy technologies. The learning capacity of cultures in specific contexts, especially, is vital for the planning and decision-making of renewable energy systems. With such increased understanding it is envisaged that the sustainability performances of renewable energy technological interventions may be improved during the design stages, i.e. during the pre-feasibility and feasibility phases, and in the uptake stages, i.e. the transfer and adoption phases, of the technology life cycle. The renewable energy system of the case study was found to be unsustainable. In essence renewable energy for off-grid rural electrification does not meet the South African Millennium Development Goals commitments for poverty reduction, because the return in productivity is uncertain and the cost is too high for the institutional support from the National Department of Minerals and Energy (DME). The failure of the integrated systems was further found to be attributed to: • The complexity of the social-institutional sub-system, which resulted in uncertainty for project planners and system designers; and • The lack of resilience of the technological system to demands from the social, economic and institutional sub-systems. If renewable energy in remote off-grid areas is to be linked to sustainable development goals then national grid connection is required. 5.1. Recommendations for the management of renewable energy technologies For technology management in general, further research is therefore required to understand the complexity of social-institutional (and ecological) systems as they relate to technological systems to reduce the uncertainty for technology designers and decision-makers. For example, the means to measure and track trust and ownership within an integrated system. The development of resilience parameters and associated factors for the design of technological systems can then be undertaken. It is envisaged that such parameters and factors can be used for the development of technology assessment methods and metrics, as they are used in technology management practices. To this end, the modification of the widely used Technology Balance Sheet, Income Statement and Space Map analytical techniques are currently being investigated, with specific emphasis on the initial research and development phases of technology management [4].