افزایش تعهد در مشکل پروژه های IT: تاثیر عوامل ریسک پروژه و خود کارآمدی در ادراک ریسک و تعهد به یک پروژه شکست خورده

Past studies have indicated that project managers may be less likely to continue failing IT projects if they are able to perceive project risks accurately. Using the scenario of a failing IT project, a computer simulation-based experiment investigated the influence of individual self-efficacy and project risk factors on the perception of risk. Participants played the role of a project manager and managed a simulated IT project. The results suggest that project managers are likely to underestimate the risks of a project with endogenous risk factors as compared to a project with exogenous risk factors. Results of this study point to a ‘self-efficacy bias’ where project managers with higher self-efficacy may underestimate the risks of a troubled IT project as compared to project managers with lower self-efficacy. Further, risk perception mediated the influence of self-efficacy on the commitment to a failing IT project.

‘Escalation of commitment’ in IT projects is often a problem where project managers may continue to persist with failing projects (Keil, 1995 and Keil & Mann, 1997). Many studies have investigated factors contributing to ‘escalation of commitment’ in IT projects (Keil et al., 2000a, Keil et al., 2000b, Keil et al., 2003, Keil & Robey, 2001, Smith et al., 2001 and Tan et al., 2003). Keil et al., 2000a and Keil et al., 2000b have suggested that project managers who accurately perceive the risks of a failing endeavor are less likely to continue with failing projects. Several researchers have identified inadequate risk management as a contributing factor for many software project failures (Barki et al., 1993, Boehm, 1991 and Charette, 1989) and have advocated strategies like evolutionary development for assessing project risk on an ongoing basis. Project managers can take appropriate action if proper risk assessment leads to early identification of a failing project. While assessing project risks, project managers may go through a cognitive process of risk identification, risk classification and risk evaluation

If project managers perceive the risks of a failing project inaccurately, they may be likely to persist with failing IT projects. Understanding of factors that influence project managers' perception of risks can be useful in devising tools, techniques and practices to enable accurate assessment of project risks. This study suggests that while past experience in the project domain may help project managers in assessing the risks more accurately than novices (Du et al., 2007), it could also hinder accurate assessment of risks under certain conditions. Project managers with high self-efficacy may overgeneralize their past experiences and may underestimate the risks involved in a particular situation. If decision makers with high self-efficacy evaluate a risky project more optimistically, it is possible that they may persist with a failing project longer. On the other hand, decision makers with low self-efficacy may not launch risky but promising projects. Further, project managers might underestimate the risks associated with endogenous risk factors as they may believe that they have greater control over those risk factors.