مدیریت مد ها و تاخیر اطلاعات: مطالعه شبیه سازی اکتشافی

Management fads seem omnipresent. Adoption research that focuses on the uptake of change says little about subsequent abandonment behaviors. In this paper a simulation model is developed that extends adoption and diffusion models to consider abandonment from a dynamic perspective. Analysis of the simulation results leads to the conclusion that incomplete information and bandwagon effects can lead to fad-like behaviors.

Management innovations seem to appear and disappear as a matter of routine. Over the last decade Total Quality Management, Business Process Reengineering, knowledge management and other techniques have been lauded as revolutionary and transformative, only to be subsequently abandoned as impractical or unachievable. Does a systemic rationale for fad behavior exist? Can these systemic pressures be used to stimulate consumer behaviors that generate sustained product adoption, or on the other hand, to maximize the short-term adoption for products that have limited recurring potential? In this paper I extend a classic model of diffusion to include explicit experimentation and abandonment as well as adoption. This extension provides a platform for consideration of fad behaviors. Dynamic simulation of the model shows how incomplete information and bandwagon effects lead to fad-like behaviors. Analysis of the simulation's results presents interesting directions for future research and understanding of fad behaviors in marketing and managerial applications.