توسعه بدون انرژی؟ ارزیابی سناریوهای آینده مصرف انرژی در کشورهای در حال توسعه

We analyze the relationship between economic development and energy consumption in the context of greenhouse gas mitigation. The main contribution of this work is to compare estimates of energy thresholds in the form of minimum energy requirements to reach high levels of development with output projections of per capita final energy supply from a group of integrated assessment models (IAMs). Scenarios project that reductions of carbon emissions in developing countries will be achieved not only by means of decreasing the carbon intensity, but also by making a significant break with the historically observed relationship between energy use and economic growth. We discuss the feasibility of achieving, on time scales acceptable for developing countries, both decarbonization and the needed structural changes or efficiency improvements, concluding that the decreases in energy consumption implied in numerous mitigation scenarios are unlikely to be achieved without endangering sustainable development objectives. To underscore the importance of basic energy needs also in the future, the role of infrastructure is highlighted, using steel and cement as examples.

Due to their isolation, islands incur more difficult and expensive energy supplies. With respect to electrical energy, the economies of scale associated with large generation units are minimally applicable because the loss of one unit may destabilise the entire power system. Additionally, the voltage and frequency control problems are usually more complicated due to the limited possibilities for interconnection with the systems from other islands or the mainland; consequently, fragility, in terms of the probable loss of stability, is higher in power systems that belong to islands [1]. Additionally, the need for overseas fuel transportation raises the cost of the energy supply; such energy is used either to feed the power plants or for heating or cooling systems, road transport, etc. However, islands are usually granted with a variety of renewable energy sources (RES), and they have access to marine resources. Hence, the choice of which renewable resources to use on each island must be studied prior to system implementation to achieve the most optimal integration, both technically and economically [2] and [3]. As mentioned, another characteristic of islands is their relative isolation, which is more significant with increasing distance from the continent; this fact often results in a more or less unified behaviour with regard to the customs and traditions, which are unique to each island [4]. Habits and cultural practices also may influence the development and use of energy [5] and the grade of adaptability to changes exhibited by the citizens of the island. With respect to the integration of RES on islands, various technical aspects must be considered such as the type of storage system that should be provided [6]. The system may be the continental grid itself for cases in which there exists the possibility to electrically connect the island with the continent or alternative storage means [7], [8] and [9]. Accordingly, in 2007, a European project called STORIES was developed with the objective to facilitate the penetration of RES on islands by changing the legislative and regulatory frameworks that are in force until then, so that technologies related to energy storage can be implemented [10], [11] and [12].

The energy cost on islands is always higher than that of the associated continental areas, mainly due to the costs associated with the transportation of fossil fuels, apart from the fact that islands often lack such fuels on their own. However, islands are rich in several types of renewable energy, with the specific energetic potential unique to each island. Additionally, with respect to this potential, large differences can be observed among islands belonging to the same archipelago, creating the necessity to develop detailed studies of this potential prior to fostering renewable energy facilities of any kind. Accordingly, the best technical solutions developed to integrate as much renewable energy as possible on islands must be studied and designed on a per-case basis. As part of these solutions, energy storage systems, smart grid development, renewable source diversification, smaller and quicker conventional groups, and electric car implementation should be considered. In this way, it can be concluded that the best option is usually a combination of different approaches, which should be tailored for each island. Our analyses show that the development of an appropriate dynamic regulatory framework, before it can be adapted to a given situation and agreed upon by the islanders, is essential for achieving high RES penetration success on islands. Thus, population involvement is key for expanding the use of renewable energy. To achieve this, adequate incentives should be established, together with easing the bureaucratic tasks associated with the facilities. Additionally, adequate communication policies, before putting regulations in place, are required; otherwise, a regulatory framework that is achieved without consensus is useless.