تصمیم گیری در اکتشاف نفت و گاز در منطقه قطب شمال؛ مورد مطالعه دریای بارنتز نروژ

This paper addresses how risks to the environment in the Arctic are handled in decisions regarding the exploration for petroleum resources. An exploration well in the Norwegian Barents Sea is used as a case to demonstrate how environmental risks are assessed together with technical and economic considerations in the Oil Company’s decisions to enter into a new area and drill a well. The paper outlines environmental challenges in petroleum activities in the Arctic, the different roles of the Authorities and Oil Companies in decisions about petroleum activities, and the Oil Company’s tools and decision criteria used in addressing risks in the decision making. It is concluded that environmental and associated reputation risks are not a major issue at the strategic level in the Oil Company, since the most controversial areas in the Norwegian Arctic offshore have already been kept out of the exploration acreage by the authorities. Risks and uncertainties penetrate every aspect of the exploration of petroleum resources, and environmental risks are not unique in this sense. The Oil Company has established technical and economic tools and decision criteria to address them, and the mitigation of environmental risks becomes an element in the technical and economic analyses that affect detailed design and operational procedures. Mitigation measures such as the minimization of discharges to the sea (the so-called “zero-discharge” policy) and oil spill contingency planning are dimensioned to meet authority requirements and expectations rather than on strict risk acceptance considerations. A significant concern is to avoid delays in the permit granting process.

Since the start of the petroleum activities in Norway at the end of the 1960s, Norwegian industry has developed considerable resources and competence to explore, develop and produce oil and gas fields. Today, the Norwegian Continental Shelf is by and large a mature petroleum area. In 2006, only about 12% of the produced petroleum reserves were replaced by new findings (Norwegian Petroleum Directorate, 2007). The oil production peaked in year 2000 and has declined by 25% between 2000 and 2006. The gas production continues to increase. This development will in the future have large impact on employment and value creation in the Norwegian oil industry. Both the Norwegian oil companies and the supplier industry have at an early stage identified this trend and are seeking business opportunities in new areas. Internationally, the Norwegian oil industry is facing significant challenges. World wide, the finding of new petroleum reserves does not match the increasing demand, not the least from developing nations such as China and India. The Independent Oil Companies (IOCs) are seriously limited in their possibilities to operate in many countries due to privileged National Oil Companies (NOCs) or political insecurity. There is an ever-increasing competition for the limited new petroleum resources that in practice are available to the IOCs. The US Geological Survey (USGS) expects 24% of the World’s remaining undiscovered petroleum resources to be located in the Arctic (USGS, 2000). Petroleum activities in this area have, however, for decades been hampered by a high cost level and significant public resistance (USGS, 2000). This situation is about to change. The high oil prices during the last years and the increasing competition for new petroleum resources have evoked the IOCs’ interest for especially the Arctic offshore. It has been a natural step for the Norwegian oil industry to expand into the Arctic offshore, as 30% of the undiscovered Norwegian petroleum resources are expected to be in the Barents Sea. The country’s advanced offshore oil industry and location in the “High North” are also expected to be competition advantages internationally.

Risks and uncertainties penetrate every aspect of an exploration process, environmental risk being one of many aspects, and management are accustomed to addressing these. Environmental risks may have significant cost and schedule impacts. They may affect economics and may stop or delay a drilling plan. HSE is, however, not a major issue at a strategic level in the Corporate decision making, partly because the environmentally most controversial areas on the Norwegian Continental Shelf have already been screened out by authority assessments. During the well delivery phase environmental risks are addressed at a technical level and determine detail design and operations procedures. For potentially contentious projects, like the case described here, risk of delay in the permit granting process is a major project risk which may be mitigated by exceeding the formal authority environmental requirements.