موانع و اهرمهای مقابل اکتشافات آتی در تجارب عملی در سیاست گذاری

In this paper the first findings of a retrospective scan of the use of future exploration methods in strategic policy-making processes in the public domain in the Netherlands and Belgium will be addressed. The barriers and leverage points as experienced by the policy-makers involved will be assessed from their perspective as end-users who have applied foresight methods in their policy-making activities. By means of four case studies, the success factors and barriers that policy-makers encounter as they apply future exploration methods will be elaborated on. Attention will be paid to the different motives and intentions employed when opting for future exploration methods. The case studies are based on policy document analyses and in-depth interviews with users in the policy domain, all conducted in view of building empirical evidence.

1.1. Context “If long term scenario planning is to become an effective cornerstone of policy-making, more empirical evidence is needed to demonstrate that scenarios can deliver on their promises” [1]. To make a strong case for the added value of future exploration methods in strategic policy-making processes in the public domain, the field is currently still lacking sufficient empirical evidence. The general observation is that future exploration methods are still not used in an optimal way [1], [2], [3], [4], [5] and [6]. As van der Steen et al. [7] state: “Most future studies are not used by managers and strategists and do not influence the direction of organizational development. Although the contribution of future studies to management is in theory all but self-evident, the practice in organisations is that futures knowledge is hardly used, or at most, is used selectively and strategically (politically).” In this paper the first findings will be addressed of a retrospective scan of the use of such methods in strategic policy-making processes in the public domain in the Netherlands and Belgium. Such methods are defined as allowing us to analyse what might happen in the future in a systematic way. The use of foresight methods will take centre stage. Foresight is seen as the attempt to explore alternative futures by taking into account uncertainties. Scenario analysis is a foresight method. Scenarios can be defined as stories on how the future might develop in a specific area of interest. As the future is fundamentally uncertain it is possible to conceive of several different futures which are equally plausible and all worth considering [8].