مدلسازی عدم قطعیت در تعمیر و نگهداری بر اساس قابلیت اطمینان - یک روش احتمالی

Uncertainties in the decision making of reliability centered maintenance (RCM) are discussed. These uncertainties might be unacceptable in many practical applications, leading to non-optimum maintenance strategies. An alternative approach, opening for specified uncertainties is shown to correct this defect. Exemplifying the approach, a simple fire detection system is discussed.

First introduced in the aircraft industry, reliability centered maintenance (RCM) has been used with considerable success in the recent decades in many industrial branches. A brief introduction to the method is given in Section 2. A simple fire detection and extinguishing system is also introduced. This system is used as an illustration throughout the paper. The choice of the “best maintenance strategy” is one of the main points of RCM. Decision making might, however, be difficult because of questions without a certain answer. For example, the question whether or not a component is critical might not be easy to answer with “YES” or “NO”. This is discussed in Section 3, where an alternative approach also is developed. Analysis on how the initial decision uncertainties are propagated to the strategy uncertainties is presented, indicating in which cases the uncertainty effects become important. In Section 4, the new approach is applied to the fire detection and extinguishing system introduced in Section 2.

The discussion above and especially the analysis of the illustrative ®re detection and extinguishing system clearly show that probabilistic RCM is superior to traditional ªYES/ NOº decision making. The main advantages may be summarized as follows.