پیش بینی شرایط سیستم کشتی سازی از طریق ابزار قابلیت اطمینان تحلیلی و شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی

Inadequate ship machinery maintenance can increase equipment failure posing a threat to the environment, affecting performance, having a great impact in terms of business losses by reducing ship availability, increasing downtime and moreover increasing the potential of major accidents occurring and endangering lives on-board. This paper aims to provide a systematic approach for identifying critical ship machinery systems/components and to analyse their physical parameters. Critical ship main engine systems/components are used as input in a dynamic time series neural network, in order to monitor and predict future values of physical parameters related to ship critical systems. The critical main engine systems/components and their relevant parameters to be monitored are identified though the combination of Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA). A case study of a Panamax size container ship is presented in which Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are used to predict the upcoming values of all main engine cylinders exhaust gas temperatures. The forecasted results were validated through comparison with actual observations recorded on board the ship. The proposed hybrid methodology successfully presents a systematic approach for initially identifying critical systems/components through reliability modelling and tools and subsequently monitoring their physical parameters through neural networks.