گردشگری و جهانی شدن - تاثیر اقتصادی در اندونزی

The issue of whether globalization is beneficial remains controversial, particularly because globalization policies are often examined without consideration of their interactions with key sectors of the economy, notably tourism. This paper uses a computable general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy to examine the effects of globalization via tariff reductions, as a stand-alone policy and in conjunction with tourism growth. The results show that tourism growth amplifies the positive effects of globalization and lessens its adverse effects. Production increases and welfare improves, while adverse effects on government deficits and the trade balance are reduced.

In recent years, tourism and its associated economic repercussions have taken place within a wider context of globalization of the world economy. Macroeconomic policymakers have been concerned to decrease barriers which impede international flows of goods, services and financial capital and to ensure flexibility of exchange rates, interest rates, and wages, with the aim of inducing markets to operate more efficiently. The introduction of such macroeconomic policies has been a source of some controversy because of the implications for income and employment, as well as income distribution and the welfare of local populations. Policies to promote trade liberalization are a case in point. Trade liberalization is occurring in conjunction with World Trade Organization, International Monetary Fund, and World Bank pressures for lower tariffs and the elimination of import quotas, and also as part of the process of integration within regional trading blocs. Although trade liberalization is supposed to bring about long-term benefits by allowing countries to reap gains from specialization in production on the basis of their comparative advantage (for example, Begg et al 2000 and Krugman and Obstfeld 1997), a number of problems may occur. The first can take the form of a balance of trade deficit, as consumers purchase increasing quantities of the cheaper imports. The second involves a government budget deficit, as the government receives less revenue from the lower tariffs, especially if exports are not stimulated by reciprocal liberalization by trade partners. The third concerns the effects of trade liberalization on the distribution of income and levels of welfare of the local population, and particularly on the income levels of the poorest households in the economy. Thus, the issue addressed here is whether the growth of tourism can help to resolve the problems inherent in trade liberalization by decreasing the trade deficit, increasing government revenues, and improving income distribution. This issue has received little attention from macroeconomic policymakers, who have tended to formulate and implement policies without taking account of their predicted effects in the context of tourism growth, even in countries whose economies are highly dependent on this industry. Nor has the issue received much attention in the literature, which has tended to concentrate on the income and employment impacts of tourism per se, rather than on its wider range of economic impacts, including those on distribution and welfare, in alternative macroeconomic contexts. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop existing research in the area by examining the economic impacts of tourism within the macroeconomic context of globalization in the form of increasing trade liberalization, as well as in the context of lower domestic taxation. The issue will be examined for the case of Indonesia, the fourth largest country in the world in terms of its population of over 210 million. As one of the former “Asian tigers”, Indonesia is an important emerging economy which has experienced both growth in tourism and a push towards increasing trade liberalization in recent years. It has a wide range of attractions and natural resources. The growing international demand for these assets, in the context of decreasing levels of trade protection, has significant implications for domestic income and employment generation, income distribution, and welfare. This paper will examine these effects in the cases of tourism, trade, and tax policies in Indonesia. The paper will build on previous contributions to research in the area of tourism impact analysis, which has been undertaken using direct and indirect income changes (Gartner and Holecek, 1983 and Gartner 1987), input–output models (Archer 1995, Archer and Fletcher 1996, Fletcher 1989 and Johnson and Moore 1993) and, subsequently, by using a social accounting matrix (Wagner 1997) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models (Adams and Parmenter 1995 for the Australian economy; Zhou, Yanagida, Chakravorty and Leung 1997 for Hawaii; Alavalapati and Adamowicz 2000 for the environmental impacts of tourism in Canada; Blake 2000 for Spain; and Dwyer, Forsyth, Madden and Spurr 2000 for the Australian economy). All of these approaches have the advantage of taking account of the interrelationships between tourism and other sectors of the economy. This paper will use a CGE model, which has the advantages of incorporating the full range of feedback between the different sectors of the economy, along with flexibility of prices and factor substitutability. It is well suited for examining the effects of tariff reductions and of domestic taxation, which are a topic of growing concern in the tourism literature (Jensen and Wanhill 2002). The CGE model developed in this study is used to undertake the analysis, enabling the full range of economic impacts to be quantified within a multisectoral framework. The model is particularly useful for understanding the characteristics of the economy and for quantifying the effects of alternative policies in relation to tourism, trade liberalization, and taxation. The results from using the model to measure the effects of trade liberalization per se and of trade liberalization combined with decreases in domestic taxation will be compared with the results obtained from implementing these policies in a context of tourism growth.

This study has shown that globalization combined with tourism does not necessarily have adverse effects on the domestic economy, in contrast to the past portrayal of the combination as “a deadly mix” (Chavez 1999). Globalization and foreign tourism growth can, in fact, reduce the domestic price level and increase the amount of foreign trade and availability of products in the national economy, thereby stimulating further production. The end result in the Indonesian case is improved macroeconomic performance and welfare, as domestic absorption and household consumption increase. Foreign tourists are also better off, for they can consume more, given their spending level, and also benefit from the greater availability of products. The trade balance and current account deficits are of concern, indicating the need for appropriate accompanying policies, such as the promotion of investment in manufacturing, underpinned by the booming service sector. Moreover, the positive findings from this study do not take account of effects that foreign tourism may have on the environment and culture. The combined effects of the growth of foreign tourism and globalization are beneficial, overall, as the foreign tourism growth amplifies the positive effects of globalization and at the same time reduces its adverse effects. The trade balance and government accounts are in a better position, owing to the additional receipts from tourism. The ongoing growth of foreign tourism also reduces the government’s burdens as a result of embarking on globalization, by enabling it to reduce its reliance on import tariffs and indirect taxation while, at the same time, maintaining the level of income necessary to finance its expenditure. In essence, tourism growth would enable the government to follow a fiscal policy of revenue neutral globalization, allowing it to finance its expenditure without imposing higher taxes on the Indonesian population.