The influence of climate change on tourism demand patterns will be shaped by the response of tourists to the complexity of mitigation policy and its impacts on transportation systems, the wide range of climate change impacts on destinations, as well as broader impacts on society and economic development. Tourists have the largest adaptive capacity of elements within the tourism system because of their flexibility to substitute the place, timing and type of holiday, even at very short notice. Consequently, understanding tourist perceptions and reactions to the impacts of climate change is essential to anticipating the potential geographic and seasonal shifts in tourism demand, as well as the decline or increase of specific tourism markets. Yet, despite a wide range of publications assessing reactions of tourists to various environmental and climate-related changes, little is actually known about the complexity of demand responses. The paper reviews and discusses existing studies, and provides a framework for a better understanding of perceptions of change, as well as identifying major current uncertainties and research needs.
Climate, the natural environment, income and discretionary wealth, personal safety, and travel costs are key factors in travel motivations and destination choice (Hall, 2005). Because all of these factors appear likely to be affected by climate change (Scott, Hall, & Gössling, 2012), the implications for tourist behaviour and patterns of demand at local, national and international scales could be profound. Understanding tourist perceptions and reactions to the impacts of climate change is therefore essential to anticipating the potential geographic and seasonal shifts in tourism demand, changes in specific tourism markets, and the overall competitiveness of businesses and destinations. Yet, despite increasing numbers of publications on tourism and climate and environmental change, substantial knowledge gaps remain with respect to demand responses (Gössling and Hall, 2006a, Gössling and Hall, 2006b and Hall, 2008a). This paper therefore aims to systematically review existing studies in order to develop a coherent outline of major current uncertainties and research needs.
This paper set out to review existing studies in order to develop a coherent outline of major current uncertainties and research needs with regard to tourist responses to climate change. As has been shown, there is an increasing body of literature on the impacts of climate change on tourist behaviour and demand. However, many of these studies make assumptions about the understanding and perception of climate-related changes as well as resulting changes in demand and motivation for often generalized tourism populations. Key knowledge gaps therefore remain. As motives for travel are interlinked with perception of destination attributes, climate change can affect destination attractiveness. However, as destinations will also have appeal for reasons largely unaffected by climate change, including uniqueness, travel time, standard and cost of accommodation, perceived safety and security, existing facilities, services, access, and hospitality and service (Hall, 2005), it is clear that climate change is but one factor affecting attractiveness. Moreover, destinations can seek to deal through adaptation with climate change and lessen potential impacts.
Out of these observations, a model was created to conceptualize where perceptions of change become relevant, and where research gaps exist. To this end, 14 key research issues were outlined, which make it clear that advancing the understanding of tourist responses to the various impacts of climate change remains a highly challenging, but fundamental, research area, if accurate projections of changes in geographic and temporal patterns of tourism demand are to be possible. More specifically, it is clear that perceptions vary by holiday type and role, and change with age, culture and other socio-demographic variables. As these also change with individual preferences, values and personalities, and evolve over travel careers and with the degree of specialization, demand responses to climate change cannot be generalized for broader tourist populations. Overall, there is thus a need to strategically continue research into behaviour and demand responses to fill these key knowledge gaps on which much research depends and to which much government and business decision-making is oriented.
