اقتصاد سیاسی انرژی زیستی در ایالات متحده: دیدگاه تاریخی بر اساس سناریوهای درگیری و همگرایی است

The paper analyzes the historical evolution of the production of liquid bioenergy in the US on the basis of the political economy of fuels for road transport, largely determined by the dynamics of the opportunity cost that arises from the connection between energy and agricultural markets. We have developed an analysis framework to build a set of scenarios suitable to explain the evolution of biofuel markets in the historical period analyzed. These scenarios, strongly associated with conditions of convergence and conflict between the regulatory state and the agro-industry, have then been statistically verified using an interrupted time series analysis. The analysis shows that the evolution of governance, institutions, and markets around bioenergy have been determined not just by the political goals of the US regulatory state, but also by private economic drivers related to agro-industry. This suggests that bioenergy transition in the US can be understood as the agricultural dimension of the political economy that underlies the socio-technical regime of energy for transport in the US, characterized by institutional inertia and technological lock-in.