توسعه ICT و اقتصاد جدید در چین

This study provides empirical evidence on China’s ICT industry development and diffusion in recent years. Although there is still a huge gap between China and the developed countries in the development of the ICT industry, the astonishing pace of its progress shows promise for the country’s New Economy. The ICT industry is becoming the most dynamic sector in China’s economy. There is, however, a clear digital divide among the nation’s three economic regions.

Information and communications technology (ICT) is the major driving force of the New Economy. While there is ample evidence that the information and communications industry has contributed a great deal to the overall economic growth of the developed countries (Kraemer and Dedrick, 2001; Jalava and Pohjola, 2002), the role of the ICT industry in developing countries is far from clear. Since developing countries are short of capital investment and knowledge know-how, they lag far behind the industrialized nations in their ICT-industry development and diffusion. Industrialization is deemed the most urgent issue of economic development in these countries, and it is difficult to reach a consensus on the priorities needed to speed up the ICT industry in the overall strategy for economic development. Developing countries are hesitant to leapfrog into the process of industrialization to keep abreast with the developed countries in capturing the opportunities generated by the explosive advancement of the information and communications technology. Governments are reluctant to take bold measures for fostering the necessary environment for the development of the ICT industry because of many concerns. Among these, the pressure of unemployment that may result from ICT’s ‘displacement effect’ is a major factor. As we discuss in Section 2, the large-scale adoption of ICT can reduce the demand for low-skilled labour. As the most populous country and the largest economy shifting towards market economy, the development of China’s New Economy will have a great impact on the world. In this study, we first provide empirical evidence on China’s ICT industry development and ICT diffusion in recent years. We then investigate the opportunities and challenges faced in China’s development of the New Economy, especially those of the ICT industry. The paper is organized as follows. In the next section, we address two major issues. Firstly, we explore the status of China’s ICT industry development and ICT diffusion, and compare it with countries at similar stages of economic development. We refer to India in particular, as these two countries have key similarities— comparable stage of industrialization, a huge population base, and a relative low level of computer literacy. An analysis of the strengths and the weaknesses of the two countries will help shed light on the future of ICT industries in the developing world. Secondly, China is a vast nation in terms of population and territory. The disparity in economic development among its different regions is a major barrier to establishing a nationwide common market. Whether the adoption of ICT will broaden or narrow this disparity is an important and urgent issue to be explored. This issue has important policy implications as well. Based on empirical evidence, we try to find links between ICT disparity and disparity in the overall economic development. In Section 3, we discuss the opportunities and challenges facing China in developing its New Economy with regard to financing the ICT industry, attracting talent, constructing high-tech parks, deregulating the ICT industry, and the challenges and opportunities introduced by its accession to the WTO. Finally we discuss the policy implications of developing China’s New Economy in Section 4.

Based on our analysis, China clearly has a long way to go to develop its ICT-based New Economy. The country’s ICT industry development and diffusion trail far behind those of the developed countries. However, the speed of progress is astonishing. In the era of the New Economy, there is no doubt that the ICT industry is becoming the most dynamic sector of the economy, surpassing traditional industrial-age industries. After entry into the WTO, China’s huge market will become the most spectacular field of competition in the world. The global diffusion of the information and communications technology provides developing countries the opportunity to reduce the economic gap between the developing and the developed countries. With the integration of the world market, it is obvious that developed nations will outsource more and more of their labour-intensive products and service production to the developing countries. This may lessen the developing countries’ concern over the displacement effect of ICT adoption. To participate in these markets, however, developing-country enterprises will need to develop the ICT links to integrate themselves into the supply links being created for these activities. For vast developing countries like China and India to develop their ICT industries, policymakers need to consider the following issues. It is time to rethink the classical battle between ‘import substitute’ and ‘export-led’ strategies of economic development. There is huge domestic market potential for the development and diffusion of the ICT industry. Although the success of export-led strategies in ICTs has been spectacular for a number of nations, these have also had a very strong export orientation in other areas. With their large domestic markets, it may be possible for China and India to develop local markets in sufficient scale to support domestic ICT industries. · The developing countries can also find comparative advantage in the global ICT markets, as exemplified by India’s experience in promoting its software industry, which currently ranks as number two in the world, second only to the United States. India’s success has been built on: (i) comparative and absolute advantage in production costs; and (ii) export-driven demand from developed countries for outsourcing. India, however, faces potential constraints in its software industry, which include a shortage of skilled engineers and the inadequacy of its infrastructure. · Developing countries can use the information and communications technology to their advantage to restructure their industry structures. The unprecedented information communications and technology transmission is providing a unique shortcut for the developing countries to learn from the industrialized world and to build a completely new market mechanism.