برآورد هزینه یک فن آوری نوین محصول ویژه صنعت خودرو: روش مطالعه موردی

Estimating cost of new technology intensive products is very ad hoc within the automotive industry. There is a need to develop a systematic approach to the cost estimating, which will make the estimates more realistic. This research proposes a methodology that uses parametric, analogy and detailed estimating techniques to enable a cost to be built for an automotive powertrain product with a high content of new technology. The research defines a process for segregating new or emerging technologies from current technologies to enable the various costing techniques to be utilised. The cost drivers from an internal combustion engine's characteristics to facilitate a cost estimate for high-volume production are also presented. A process to enable a costing expert to either build an estimate for the new technology under analysis or use a comparator and then develop a variant for the new system is also discussed. Due to the open nature of the statement ‘new technology’, research is also conducted to provide a meaningful definition applicable to the automotive industry and this project.

The automotive, aerospace and defence industries often have to estimate the cost of a product that contains significant amounts of new technology, and so requires considerable experience of previous projects, technology trends and new developments in other industry sectors. This paper presents a case study approach for the development of a cost model methodology that can be used to estimate the costs of a new technology-intensive product. The cost drivers involved in estimating the cost of these products are identified together with the need for expert judgement in the estimating process. The paper is structured in 11 sections. Section 2 identifies relevant research in cost estimating and presents current practices within automotive and non-automotive sectors, especially focusing on new technology cost estimating processes. It is important to understand the nature of new technology; therefore Section 3 defines new technology and relates the definition to the automotive sector. The following section presents an overview of the methodology developed for the cost estimating. The methodology has three major steps: identification of new and ‘carry-over’ technologies, cost estimating both the parts and finally adjusting cost models due to the difference in sources of data used. The methodology is developed using a case study approach on powertrain cost estimating. Once the ‘carry-over’ technology intensive parts are identified, the cost is estimated based on historical data (Section 5). Estimating the cost of the parts that are new technology based is trickier; it requires a comparative study with previous knowledge within other sectors (Section 6). The model developed as a result of the case study is fine adjusted to reflect the difference in time frame of the source data in Section 7. The methodology is then validated using two case studies, discussed in 8 and 9. Discussion on the research methodology and results obtained are presented in Section 10, and finally the paper concludes in Section 11 and proposes future improvements to the cost models.

The research has identified the current ad hoc practice in estimating cost of new technology intensive automotive products. The paper uses a case study to develop a systematic approach to the cost estimating. The structured approach helps to produce realistic estimates even in the presence of high percentage of new technology content within an automotive product. Therefore, overall followings are the conclusions from the research: a. A structured methodology to perform cost estimating for products with high levels of new technology does not exist. b. Three types of new technology can be used in cost estimating: new to organisation, new to industry, and new to mankind. c. A methodology to separate the use of current technology versus new technology in a product has been developed. d. A structured methodology has been developed for cost estimating new technology-intensive products. e. The methodology has been implemented in an Excel spreadsheet and evaluated through two case studies. f. The limitations of the models and the research methodology have been identified. The inclusion of risk analysis and confidence in a reported estimate is one area where the model would benefit from further research. This tool would provide an added dimension to decision-makers within an automotive company, either to further develop technologies or focus on certain high-cost elements. Including risk analysis would expand the model scenarios and allow the business decision to be based upon more robust fundamentals. The model currently produces an estimate that details a cost with a known confidence, but fails to not detail what would happen if elements of the estimate were changed. It is not possible to use this model to manage day-to-day costs incurred in a manufacturing facility, but it is ideal for developing strategies or estimates for products that are only in the concept of development.