مرزهای آینده پژوهی: گام بعدی چیست؟

This paper describes some important frontiers of futures research with the aim of identifying new opportunities for improving the value and utility of the field. These frontiers include the exploration and/or the reexamination of (a) Potential for integrating new technology with futures research methods, (b) Ways to reduce the domain of the unknowable, (c) Ways to account for uncertainty in decision making, (d) Strategies for planning and management of nonlinear systems operating in the chaotic regime, (e) Ways to improve understanding of psychological factors that lead to irrational decisions (f) Appropriate levels of aggregation in investigation of forecasting problems. (g) The potential offered by new sources of social data.

There are many methods and approaches to the study of the future. While futures research methods are internally coherent and used systematically, there is no assurance that the evolution of such methods will lead to a more organized “science-like” field with a theoretical basis. Not only are there many diverse techniques for theorizing, observing, and interpreting the future directions and consequences of societal, economic, and technological change, but also the methodological approaches used in their analysis vary greatly. There are few attempts to aggregate futures data and build current work on proven prior work. The result, for better or worse, is that the field lacks the consistency and coherence that mark more scientific fields. Yet there are some methodological frontiers which, if addressed, may improve the quality of the enterprise [1].

This paper has identified several frontiers and challenges that may give new vitality to futures research. Certainly as they – and other directions – are explored the field will gain new thinking and new approaches, expand its utility, promote innovation, and hopefully improve decisions which incorporate its findings. Thus, these frontiers will serve as important orientation in the elaboration of the second edition of Futures Research Methodology 2.1 (CD-ROM) to be published by American Council for the United Nations University early in 2005.