سرمایه گذاری در فن آوری نوین: مدل فرایند تصمیم گیری

This paper presents a model designed to throw light on the economic mechanisms determining the decision to acquire a new technology to replace an existing one. The investment decision is governed by a cost-benefit analysis, which is influenced by the factors analysed in the model described. These factors are the lapse of time between the acquisition of the technology currently in use and the moment at which the new technology becomes available; the useful life of the new technology; the speed of the innovation process; interest rates; the acquisition cost of the new technology; and learning costs. A static comparative analysis is performed on the basis of these factors with the aim of recommending the most appropriate instruments for technology policy measures.

There has been a proliferation of studies treating technology as a key factor for economic growth in recent years, among which we may cite the contributions of Romer, 1990, Grossman and Helpman, 1991, Aghion and Howitt, 1992 and Aghion and Howitt, 1998. If technology plays such a significant role in growth and economic convergence between countries, it will clearly be essential to understand in detail the decision-making process behind investment in technology. This is the objective of this paper, which proposes a microeconomic model to explain the technology investment process.1 The first part of the argument examines the factors determining the process of new technology acquisition. This requires an analysis of costs and benefits. Users will purchase a technological innovation if it generates positive net gains. The second part applies a static comparative analysis to observe how each of the factors considered affects the investment decision process. Finally, the measures that governments might take to encourage the acquisition of new technologies are considered in light of the results obtained from the study. Conclusions are presented in Section 4 of this paper.

The foregoing discussion presents a model designed to throw light on the economic mechanisms determining the decision to acquire a new technology to replace an existing one. Such acquisitions, of course, involve costs and benefits. The final decision will depend upon whether the investment in the new technology will generate net gains. According to the model, these gains will, in turn, depend on the period in which the technology in use at the time the possibility of acquiring a new one is raised was acquired, as well as the period in which the new technology is offered, its useful life, the speed of the innovation process, interest rates, acquisition costs and learning costs. Benefits will arise from the technology if the present value of the sum of all additional annual profits generated as a result of acquiring the technology over the whole of its useful life exceeds the sum of acquisition and learning costs, taking into consideration that the technology incorporates further developments in each period providing higher profits, despite the increase in learning costs, and that it is subject to obsolescence. The static comparative analysis reveals that of the factors considered only the useful life of the technology, the rate of interest, the cost of acquisition and learning costs have a definite effect on net gains (positive in the first case and negative in the rest) and, therefore, on the investment decision. The discussion of the most appropriate economic policies that a government might adopt to foster investment in the acquisition of new technologies is based on this analysis. These policies would involve measures to reduce interest rates or to act on acquisition and learning costs.