گنجاندن دیدگاه سهامداران در مدل های اشاعه تکنولوژی نوین: مورد خودروهای سلول سوختی

The literature on the modeling of diffusion of technologies typically uses historical data to calibrate a model. For cases where data on the diffusion of comparable technologies are not available and where high multi-sector stakes are involved, models that use more specific information may be useful. The potential transition to alternative transportation vehicle technologies and fuels, like fuel-cell vehicles and hydrogen, would be an example of such cases. We propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs' market-share evolution. Our estimates of the time scales required for the market, particularly for the initial stages, are longer than those obtained in other studies.

The extreme dependency on oil of ground transportation systems across the world – particularly in the United States – has become a weakness in national economies. It engenders environmental degradation, excessive strategic dependency on foreign oil (e.g. Ref. [1]), pernicious health effects (e.g. [2] and [3]), agricultural losses, and growing contributions to global warming. These factors have, at different points in time, directed the eyes of policymakers to alternative fuels and new automobile technologies. Oil prices triggered an interest in energy efficiency in the early 1970s, poor air quality led regulatory action to promote methanol and electric vehicles in the early 1990s, and energy dependence and climate change are driving the interest in hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and hydrogen in the beginning of the 21st century. Radical transformations have proved, however, more difficult to implement than incremental improvements of standard technologies. Policy processes to move away from a gasoline were often characterized by asymmetric information (the regulated industry dominating the technical debate), regulators' limited understanding of market demand, political unwillingness to internalize externalities, and industry reluctance to depart from the status quo. The idea of a transportation sector relying on hydrogen as its main fuel has grown since its inception, from little more than a scientific hypothesis to a tangible possibility. As an energy carrier, just like gasoline, hydrogen necessitates a technology to extract usable energy from it. The fuel cell is the technology that most efficiently does this. When used in fuel cells, hydrogen vehicles have no tailpipe emissions while at the same time offer private benefits relative to conventional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) (e.g. superior vehicle performance.) This potential dual superiority of hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) has made them a favorite in both policymakers and industry camps. However, whether and when the last essential technological breakthroughs will happen is still uncertain. Whether and when FCVs will be successful in the market is still uncertain and dependent on several factors. These factors include: a. Technological progress: Despite sustained progress, a series of technological advances are still needed to position the hydrogen–fuel cell combination as a competitive alternative to mainstream alternatives. Areas where research and development (R&D) are currently directed to include on-board hydrogen storage and fuel cell durability. b. Technology economics: Factors like production learning, production volume, accessibility to hydrogen fuel dispensing stations, the cost of hydrogen fuel, and R&D investment will directly affect the cost of purchasing and operating FCVs. Needless to say, this cost is to be evaluated vis-à-vis the cost associated to the purchase and operation of competing vehicle technologies. c. Consumer behavior: Ultimately, it will be the consumer who decides the fortune of FCVs in the marketplace. Not only vehicle cost will be relevant, but also perceptions about the safety of hydrogen, the value proposition of FCVs relative to gasoline vehicles, and social pressures. d. Regulation and political agendas: While the market will decide long-term diffusion of hydrogen vehicles, the politico-regulatory environment can play a significant role in the initial stages of the diffusion process. The time scale of the diffusion process in question is longer than typical political time scales. Today, the dominant political driver behind hydrogen in the United States is energy security, in the face of spiking oil prices, an unstable Middle East, and sustained increases in oil demand from growing economies. How long this panorama will last is uncertain. Within the next decade, perceptions on the stability in the Middle East may change, internal combustion engines may become significantly more efficient thereby tempering demand, and the OPEC may exercise its power to affect oil price through adjustments in supply. These and other factors can undermine the continuity of the political commitment, necessary to realize a transition away from oil. Given the uncertainties involved, it is of interest to gain understanding on the potential dynamics of market penetration of FCVs. The contribution of this study is to propose an integration of theoretical frameworks on the diffusion of innovations with data on stakeholders' opinions, to develop estimates of FCVs market-share evolution.

In this paper we incorporated the expert opinions of key stakeholders in the estimation of the parameters characterizing the diffusion of a new technology. We focused on the case of fuel-cell vehicles, looking at the market-share dynamics in the presence of competing vehicle technologies. We built upon previous work on the diffusion of innovations and used data we obtained from a survey of stakeholders of the hydrogen policy process. Our results are based on the following structural assumptions: (a) market penetrations follow a logistic trajectory, (b) consumers tend to prefer more incremental innovations and a typical consumer will adopt a hybrid electric vehicle before adopting a fuel-cell vehicle, (c) HEVs and FCVs both have the potential to capture 100% of the market. Assumption (b) is probably the strongest, but we show that in our case this assumption has no significant impact on the evolution of market substitution. Our results also depend on our choices in terms of the opinion of which stakeholder groups may be more relevant to generate estimates of diffusion parameters. While we explained the rationale behind our choices, other analysts may have different preferences. Data was provided so that they can generate their own estimates. This paper also purports to recognize the importance of stakeholders in shaping the market introduction of new vehicle technologies. Traditionally, studies on innovation have used historical data on other technologies to generate estimates of the diffusion parameters of a new technology. This study looks at these studies for general guidance, but relies on expert opinions to generate parameter estimates. The methodology is also very flexible in that it can be adapted to different problems and to different policymakers' preferences. Our results on the market diffusion of fuel-cell vehicles are in general less optimistic than projections made by other scholars and governmental bodies (e.g. Refs. [21] and [22]). In particular, we find that the time to take off in sales may be longer than generally believed. A slower diffusion during the initial stages is consistent with previous studies of technologies that require significant capital investments in complementary infrastructures. At the same time, our results are optimistic about the market penetration of HEVs, relative to studies based on other approaches. [23] for example, concluded that HEVs would capture a 7.1% of the light-duty vehicle market by 2008, and a 14.9% by 2012. They predict, however, that “[b]ecause of their higher costs the combined market share of diesels and hybrids is likely to be limited to half or less than half of all light-duty vehicles even in the long-run, unless policy and market conditions change significantly in their favor. Such changes are not unlikely, given continuing concerns about energy security and global climate change” (p. 55.) We believe that not only these two concerns, but also rapidly increasing global demand for oil and changing consumer perceptions of HEVs, are very likely to generate policy and market incentives for the development of markets for HEVs beyond the levels predicted in [23]. The time scales involved in this initial stage of market introduction should be of special interest to policymakers who wish to promote FCVs. Government could shorten, to some degree, the time to sales take off by reducing the price effect (with purchase and research incentives) and by reducing uncertainties about the availability of the complementary infrastructure (providing financial mechanisms for the deployment of a hydrogen refueling infrastructure.). The model, as presented in this paper, gives no explicit consideration to the potential effect of regulation and policy in the dynamics of technology innovation. It could be argued, however, that the regulatory perspectives are implicit in the expectations of government officials in our sample. Respondents with regional agencies had mean estimates of 2012.6 and 2026.5 for the years of FCVs earliest market introduction and 5% market penetration respectively, both statistically significantly different (p < 0.1) than the rest of the sample. Using these values would yield an estimated earlier market penetration, which could be more reflective of policymakers' expectations. Generating estimates of the schedule of technologies substitution is the first step in our research agenda. A mathematical integration of the set of diffusion curves can help yield estimates of the associated societal benefits in terms of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, criteria pollutant emissions, and oil consumption. Research in this area is currently underway.