آیا ابزارهای آماده به کار آمریکا باعث مهار انتشار سیستم های مولد متعلق به مشتری می شود؟

New, small-scale electric generation technologies permit utility customers to generate some of their own electric power and to utilize waste heat for space heating and other applications at the building site. This combined heat and power (CHP) characteristic can provide significant energy-cost savings. However, most current US utility regulations leave CHP standby rate specification largely to utility discretion resulting in claims by CHP advocates that excessive standby rates are significantly reducing CHP-related savings and inhibiting CHP diffusion. The impacts of standby rates on the adoption of CHP are difficult to determine; however, because of the characteristically slow nature of new technology diffusion. This study develops an agent-based microsimulation model of CHP technology choice using cellular automata to represent new technology information dispersion and knowledge acquisition. Applying the model as an n-factorial experiment quantifies the impacts of standby rates on CHP technologies under alternative diffusion paths. Analysis of a sample utility indicates that, regardless of the likely diffusion process, reducing standby rates to reflect the cost of serving a large number of small, spatially clustered CHP systems significantly increases the adoption of these technologies.

While large combined heat and power (CHP) systems have been used for decades in industrial, hospital and university applications, recent technology innovations permit smaller utility customers to self-generate all or a portion of their own electricity onsite and to apply waste heat from the generation process for thermal uses such as space heating, water heating, and air conditioning. For customers with appropriate hourly electric and thermal loads, overall CHP system efficiency can reach 85 percent compared to a maximum of about 50 percent for the most efficient central utility generation plants and about 33 percent for the average US utility generation plant.1 CHP systems improve the efficiency of the entire electric generation system, reduce emissions and can provide substantial reductions in utility customer energy costs. Currently, the primary US market for new small-scale CHP technologies is the commercial sector. A 2000 US Department of Energy study found 74 Gigawatts (GW) of technically feasible potential2 for commercial sector CHP system installations representing about 12 percent of total electric utility-owned capacity in the year 2000. Recent standardization of utility interconnection requirements, remote monitoring/control and guaranteed service contracts are a few recent CHP market innovations that facilitate CHP installations. Emission control technologies guarantee compliance with the most stringent local requirements while CHP systems can provide improved power quality and reliability compared to grid-delivered power. In spite of these developments, existing small US commercial sector systems probably number no more than several thousand (Jackson, 2005; DOE, 2000) and while that number is increasing (Prabhu, 2002; NECHPI, 2005), CHP systems appear to be making only modest inroads in the market (NECHPI, 2005). CHP proponents frequently identify high standby (or backup) rates, charged by the local utility when CHP systems are unexpectedly unavailable, as one of the primary reasons for the slow adoption of CHP systems (Jimison et al., 2004; Casten, 2003). A recent addition to the literature (Firestone and Marnay, 2005) confirms the important impact of standby rates in six New York utility service areas. While utilities are required to determine standby electric rates based on cost, this process is complicated and sometimes inconsistent with no agreed-upon methodology. For example, state regulatory agencies require revenue neutrality3 in designing standby rates; however, crediting CHP customers for fixed cost savings associated with generation and distribution would automatically increase the allocation of additional fixed costs to non-standby customers. On the other hand, the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), directs utilities to incorporate utility savings associated with intermittent demands in standby rate design. Consequently, utilities typically have considerable discretion in setting standby rates for incremental service required if the utility customer's CHP-generating system is not operating.4 This rate-setting flexibility puts utilities in the position of regulating competition from their own customers.5 Furthermore, revenue reductions resulting from cost-based standby rates have an exaggerated impact on profits for investor-owned utilities (Weston, 2000; Moskovitz, 2000, Regulatory Assistance Project, 2000) and create rate pressure for publicly owned utilities.6 An equally compelling argument, however, can be made that the slow adoption of CHP is characteristic of new technology diffusion and a long-recognized reluctance of firms to invest in energy-saving investments (Jaffe and Stavins, 1994; Jaffe et al., 2001; DeCanio, 1998).7 The extent to which CHP diffusion is limited by current regulatory practices as opposed to reflecting traditional new technology diffusion has important policy implications for the $239 billion US electric industry. CHP systems can potentially offer a significant opportunity to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Encouraging this resource through policy initiatives; however, requires understanding the nature of current impediments, if any, to the adoption of CHP technologies. Unfortunately, lack of utility CHP data, nonstandard interconnection fees, revisions in standby rates over time, complicated nonlinear electric rate structures that differ by utility and many other data difficulties prevent statistical tests of these hypotheses. The objective of this study is to develop an agent-based microsimulation model of new CHP technology diffusion that permits analysis of utility standby-rate setting practices on the adoption of these new technologies. The remainder of this paper is organized as follows: The next section provides a brief review of relevant literature. Section 3 describes the conceptual model and Section 4 presents an empirical model specification. Section 5 describes analysis results. The final section provides a summary.

The extent to which combined heat and power (CHP) technolgy diffusion is limited by current regulatory practices as opposed to reflecting traditional new technology diffusion and energy-related investment patterns has important policy implications. CHP systems can potentially offer a significant opportunity to improve energy efficiency and reduce emissions. This study develops and applies a new analytical framework to separate the impacts of standby rates from the diffusion process. The modeling methodology extends microsimulation techniques to include endogenous agent interaction with a cellular automata process that reflects the dissemination of new technology information and the accumulation of knowledge required to consider the purchase of these technologies. By viewing each simulation of the model as an experimental treatment where alternative values of neighborhood size, knowledge levels and sales activity are developed with a factorial experimental design, the analysis is able to systematically separate the impacts of standby rate differentials from the underlying diffusion process for alternative diffusion paths. The Long Island Power Authority (LIPA) service area was selected to conduct an example analysis. Results for the LIPA study area find that excessive current standby rates can be expected to significantly reduce the diffusion of new CHP technologies regardless of diffusion dynamics. Total additional costs attributable to excessive standby rates are estimated to be $2.1 billion over 25 years under a baseline scenario and $1.4 billion under the least costly alternative diffusion scenario examined in the study. Similarity in relationships between the LIPA study area and utility service areas in California and the Northeastern states suggests that analyses of these service areas are likely to show similar results with the following important policy implications. Standby rates designed to achieve immediate utility rate revenue neutrality or to reflect immediate, rather than longer run, distribution benefits are likely to limit the diffusion of CHP systems to such an extent that customer and utility system benefits of a large number of spatially clustered small systems are never realized. The costs of these shortsighted rate design objectives are substantial both in terms of electric system efficiency and energy costs for potential CHP customers.