بحران اقتصادی کنونی و کسب و کار بین المللی؛ آیا ما می توانیم هر چیزی معنی دار در مورد سناریوهای آینده بگوییم؟

The paper starts with a list of stylized facts on economic trends in the last few decades with particular attention to international elements. A very brief analysis of the current economic crisis is then attempted. The root cause, the causa causans, of the excessive growth of the financial sector and the inevitable current crisis is identified in the lack of profitable investment opportunities in advanced capitalist systems. The short-term remedies include a shift in income distribution to increase the consumption component of effective demand; it also includes serious regulation of the financial sector at both national and international levels. In the medium to longer term governments should consider engaging in large investment projects such as alternative sources of energy, transport as well as in public services. This might help to improve conditions for profitable private sector investment, thus benefiting both the workers and the capitalists operating in the real sector at the expense of the rent-seekers. The paper then draws some inference on key elements likely to impact on futures, particularly with respect to internationalization and the two types of innovation identified in the stylized facts: organizational and technological. Inference is drawn with respect to the economic system as well as to economics as a scientific and academic field. The final discussion draws these various elements together.

The title of this paper contains a question about whether anything meaningful can be said about the future of international business in the light of the current world economic crisis. If the question is interpreted in terms of our ability to predict the future, the answer is definitely ‘no’. However, if we interpret it to mean saying something about the recent and current developments that have a strong bearing on the future, I would say we can and this is what I shall concentrate on in this brief and sketchy paper. Contrary to common parlance – ‘financial crisis’ or ‘credit crunch’ – the current crisis is a ful