مدل بازی با عوامل عاطفی عمومی و رسانه ها در مهندسی مدیریت اضطراری عمومی

The current researches on the game behavior between the media and the public in emergency management engineering are limited to the traditional expected utility theory, the theory suppose the both sides are rational people, so the theory researches often do not match the reality. This paper introduces emotional factors and makes a new study on the game model. At first, according to the analysis of the relations between the public and the media in emergencies, we begin to study the impacts of emotions on the game behavior, and then set up the RDEU game model Based on emotional function; At last, it takes a Nash Equilibrium dynamic evolution modeling analysis by numerical example.

The public emergencies management is the key of the emergency management engineering. Public emergencies happen suddenly, it is likely to cause significant casualties, property losses, ecological environmental damages and serious social problems, finally endanger public safety [1]. In recent years, the worldwide public emergencies occur frequently; these incidents threat the public’s life and property safety directly, and they become the important factors, influencing Chinese social stability and modernization. Media is the main channel for general public to receive information, their reports of these incidents will directly influence the general public’s behavior and response attitudes, so it is a very meaningful work to research the decision-making behavior of media and public in public emergencies engineering. In the modern society, the domestic and foreign researches on the emergency management engineering are increasing .In the study of public emergency management engineering, JingYang, Jianming Chen (2005)[2] thought that it’s suitable to suppose that the whole respond process to emergencies is a dynamic gambling process between two players of “decision maker” and “emergency” itself. And they put forward a set of thoughts and methods to classify the emergency incidents dynamically from the viewpoint of system. In the application of game theory, based on a single step, normal form game model and the Nash equilibrium, Nagarajan, Rang Nathan (2007)[3] proposed a emergency management system; Darin Goldstein (2008)[4] used the method of game theory to study theemergency vehicle path model, and confirmed the new Nash equilibrium was the best through the simulation. In the applications of game theory in emergency management engineering , Yaping Si (2008)[5] used the game theory to analyze the government’s different behaviors and attitudes to the relevant individuals, organizations and other interested groups involved in the process of public crisis management. DeHai Liu (2010)[6] built a game equilibrium evolutionary model considering the mental models that reflect cognition structure different among grass-roots, higher-lever government and social vulnerable group in the emergency management engineering. At present, there are few studies about the participants in the public emergency management engineering, and the existing literatures do not take emotional factors into account. They lack of in-depth analysis of each player’s risk preferences and the actions they taken. This paper introduces emotional factors and makes a new study on the game model. At first, according to the relations between the public and the media in emergencies, we study the impacts of emotions on the game behavior, and then set up the RDEU game model based on emotional function.

At present, the research on the game behavior between media and public in emergency management engineering are restricted to the theory of expected utility, these articles suppose that both sides are rational people, in fact their decisions will be affected by many other uncertainties factors, such as the level of knowledge, awareness and emotion. So this article introduces emotional factors to the process, studies the effects of them and establishes the RDEU emotional game model based on the emotional function. By analyzing the balance results, it’s obvious that ,in the public emergency management engineering, emotions directly affect the behavior of the media and the public: When the emotional factor is large, media will make selective report, and the public will be pessimistic and overestimate their own risks; when the emotional factor is low, the media will select full report, public will be optimistic and underestimate their risks. Therefore, in order to achieve the better management effect of public emergencies, we should pay more attention to emotion’s effects in public emergency management engineering.