پیش بینی کننده های مدل سازی آمادگی خطر زلزله در نپال

In countries exposed to natural hazards, population preparedness is an important component of a comprehensive disaster risk reduction strategy. Recognition of poor preparedness, despite risk acknowledgement, prompted the development of theories for identifying motivators and barriers to hazard preparedness. While the majority of preparedness theorising and research has been in culturally individualistic countries, recent years have witnessed growing interest in applying the theories to more collectivistic settings. However, limited empirical evidence exists concerning the application of these theories in developing countries where disaster impacts are substantial. This paper assesses population preparedness in the aftermath of a major disaster in a developing country. Two theories of preparedness Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and Community Engagement Theory (CET), which have been previously applied in natural hazard contexts, were integrated to develop a new model of earthquake hazard preparedness. The validity of the proposed model was explored using 306 household surveys collected from Chainpur and Jeewanpur Village Development Committees, Dhading, Central Nepal during a field visit in April-May 2016. Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) in SmartPLS version 3.2.4 revealed that individual risk beliefs (risk appraisal and coping appraisal) and community and institutional factors could predict hazard preparedness in Nepal. The model was moderately successful (R2 41.6%) in predicting that earthquake hazard preparedness occurs at the individual cognition phase and is also influenced by community and institutional phases.