بهبود روش های سناریو در برنامه ریزی زیرساخت: یک مطالعه موردی از سفر های طولانی و تحرک در انگلستان تحت شرایط نامطمئن شدید آب و هوا و تغییرات آب و هوایی

We demonstrate the importance of considering a wide range of variables when creating instruments for infrastructure planning decisions. Our results show that weather-related disruption has consequences for travel behaviour, with a considerable number of travellers deciding not to travel despite the importance of their trip. However, the vast majority of travellers would still travel. This should be considered by policy makers, and those responsible for transport infrastructure, in order to increase its resilience to extreme weather and demand, and better devise contingency plans to contain, and minimise, the effect of the disruptions on the users. The method described has wider implications for infrastructure planning, particularly in its ability to engage a broader range of stakeholders and to avoid linear models of prediction. By emphasising the creation of a plausible decision space, it offers the possibility of increased robustness and resilience in infrastructure planning.