دانلود مقاله ISI انگلیسی شماره 101015
ترجمه فارسی عنوان مقاله

پیش بینی سود سهام در بازارهای در حال ظهور: آیا انتخاب پیش بینی ها و مدل ها در بین کشورها مهم است؟

عنوان انگلیسی
Stock return predictability in emerging markets: Does the choice of predictors and models matter across countries?
کد مقاله سال انتشار تعداد صفحات مقاله انگلیسی
101015 2017 47 صفحه PDF
منبع

Publisher : Elsevier - Science Direct (الزویر - ساینس دایرکت)

Journal : Research in International Business and Finance, Volume 42, December 2017, Pages 39-60

پیش نمایش مقاله
پیش نمایش مقاله  پیش بینی سود سهام در بازارهای در حال ظهور: آیا انتخاب پیش بینی ها و مدل ها در بین کشورها مهم است؟

چکیده انگلیسی

This study aims to examine return predictability in 24 emerging markets disaggregated in different regions. We propose four specifications, including a benchmark model. Then, an augmented model appropriate for each country, including a large set of potential factors, is evaluated. Furthermore, a dynamic multifactor model is investigated for all countries. Finally, we relax the symmetric hypothesis in asset return predictability based on a non-parametric non-linear approach: the projection pursuit regression model. Our study reveals three main findings. First, we reject all previous findings supporting a standard model of asset return predictability that is valuable for all countries, as we show that each country has specific domestic factors (both macroeconomic and financial) useful to predict future returns. Second, our empirical framework shows that asset return predictability might be robustly modelled based on non-linear specification based on the projection pursuit regression model. Our findings’ explanatory power of out-of-sample estimations is economically relevant. Our results are useful for investors and policy-makers for portfolio diversification and regulation policies.