اثر دومینو در تجارت منطقه اروپای غربی، 1960-1992

This paper uses a standard gravity equation to test the hypothesis of domino effects in Western Europe. The question being addressed is whether increased integration within the EC has impacted negatively nonmembers and, thereby, prompted their application to EC membership. The paper finds that the deepening of integration inside the EC in the late 1980s may have created such effect on EFTA member countries.

The question of regionalism has long attracted interest among international economists and policy makers. The early debate, initiated by Viner (1950), concentrated on static issues, in particular, whether preferential trading arrangements (PTAs) are trade-creating or trade-diverting. Recently, the discussion has shifted to what Bhagwati (1993) calls the “dynamic time-path” question, which can be formulated in two ways: (a) whether PTAs, once formed, tend to expand or to stagnate; or (b) whether PTAs are “building blocks” or “stumbling blocks” towards multilateral trade liberalization.

The empirical findings of the study support the hypothesis that “domino effects” have played an important role in Europe. These effects may be partly responsible for the successive enlargement of the European Community from its original 6 to its present 15 members. The situation of EFTA members offers a good illustration of such domino effects and their impact on EC membership. Throughout the period 1960–1992, the EFTA countries shipped roughly two-thirds of their exports to Western Europe, of which 90% was destined to other EFTA members or to EC countries. During the subperiod 1960–1972, exports to EFTA partners fared relatively well in view of preferences matching those enjoyed by intra-EC trade. By contrast, EFTA's exports to the EC suffered from their nonpreferential status.