مدل پرتفوی بانک ها و سیاست های پولی در اندونزی

This paper analyzes the banks’ behavior in selecting their portfolio composition and their impact on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission process in Indonesia. We employ an analytical model of the banking portfolio behavior based on microeconomic theory to understand how banks’ portfolio behavior in maximizing their profit links to the efficacy of monetary policy. This study finds that micro banking factors affects the effectiveness of monetary policy. This study also finds structural changes in banks and borrowers have altered the effectiveness of monetary policy to encourage the economic growth and hindered the process of economic recovery. As perception on risk has large impact in supporting the effectiveness of the monetary policy, effort to reduce risk through the formation as credit bureau, credit guarantee scheme, and rating agencies is critical as it will improve transparency and availability of debtor information. The need for better coordination and harmonization between macro and micro policies would be beneficial.

Efficient resource mobilization and financial intermediation are critical to support real sector development and boost economic growth. Banks are one of financial intermediaries that play a key role in financing economic development and more superior compare to other financial institution as banks can solve with asymmetric information and high cost operation in financial intermediary activities (Stiglitz & Greenwald, 2003). The economic literature has identified two channels through which banks exert their influence on the process of economic growth. First channel considers effect of finance to growth through capital accumulation (Hicks, 1969), where banking institutions by reducing transaction costs and by diversifying risks, enable the mobilization of savings to finance the investments necessary to stimulate and sustain economic development. Second channel, emphasizes the allocation of loans, where development is driven by innovations and the role of banks is to identify the most innovative entrepreneurs and by providing them with the purchasing power necessary to divert the means of production, contribute to economic growth.

Micro banking condition and its portfolio behavior affects the effectiveness of monetary policy. Since the source of financing of firms in Indonesia is largely tied to bank credit, the lack and slow growth of banks’ loans has constrained monetary policy to encourage the economic growth and hindered the process of economic recovery until recently. Banks’ willingness to extend loan is also affected by external condition such as the monetary policy as well as the banking regulation. The monetary and banking policy could affect the banking behavior not only through changes in interest rate but also through changes in constrain and incentives (Stiglitz & Greenwald, 2003). For example, the contraction in monetary policy during crisis period led to further increases in bankruptcy risk which in turn worsened the risk of default on the existing loans and finally led to a further decrease in banks’ net worth and willingness to extend loans. The imposition of CAR requirement has also contributed to a decrease in banks’ willingness to supply loans. This situation leads banks tend to put their excess liquidity in low risk assets, especially in government bonds and SBIs.