توسعه حسابداری در لهستان: بازده بازار و نسبت ارزش درآمدهای گزارش شده

This paper outlines the evolution of the information environment surrounding the Warsaw Stock Exchange in Poland. Like other transition economies, Poland needed to develop accounting regulations to support privatization. We trace changes in financial reporting regulation from 1994, through the adoption of IFRS and corporate governance codes, to the crisis of 2007–2008. The effect of these developments is then evaluated empirically by testing the relevance of earnings of listed corporations from 1997 to 2008 to corporate value. We show that the stock exchange was weak-form efficient during this period and estimate regressions for value relevance of earnings to corporate value. We find positive evidence of such relevance but no improvement in the strength of the relationship over time.

Transition economies face the challenge of creating financial markets and developing relevant regulation at a rapid pace. This paper focuses on the Republic of Poland, which began its economic transition in 1989. Over the next 20 years, Poland carried out successful privatization, established a vibrant stock market, and joined the European Union. Rapid economic transition and development left little time for accounting regulations and practices to evolve from an initial fiscal reporting function to a source of relevant economic information for investors. Accounting regulation underwent deep modifications every five years, bringing it ever closer to International Accounting Standards. This clear succession of new regulation allows us to test empirically to what extent development and harmonization of accounting regulations added to the relevance of reported accounting numbers to stock market valuation of corporate equity. The results of our study are relevant for other economies in transition, which attempt to develop their financial markets. There are relatively few studies that examine the value relevance of accounting numbers in such economies, and our research provides an insight into the effects that new regulations have on the information environment. In this paper, we identify and describe milestones in accounting regulation in Poland and then empirically analyze the effects of these changes on the relevance of accounting earnings to the valuation of corporate equity. Section 2 begins with a brief history of the Warsaw Stock Exchange and then presents the stages of development in Polish accounting from the first accounting regulation to adoption of International Financial Reporting Standards and corporate governance codes of good practice. In Section 3, we empirically evaluate the effects of these developments by testing value relevance (association between stock returns and reported earnings) over three stages of development identified in Section 2. The sample is comprised of 856 year-firm observations of non-financial companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange between 1997 and 2008. We perform market efficiency tests, which show that weak-form market efficiency was maintained throughout this period. In Section 3.3, we develop an unexpected earnings model; and in Section 3.4, we estimate regressions. Results provide evidence of the significant value relevance of earnings for the whole sample. However, we find no evidence of improvement in that relevance over time.

This paper provides an overview of the development of accounting in Poland from 1994 to 2008 and an empirical evaluation of its effects on market efficiency and the value relevance of earnings. Results show that, while there is positive evidence in both respects, no improvement occurred after the year 2000, when new accounting regulation was introduced, nor did any improvement occur after 2005, when Poland adopted IFRS. Two alternative conclusions regarding the information environment in Poland can be drawn from these results. First, the results indicate that market efficiency and value relevance were achieved early, despite potentially insufficient accounting regulations and professional standards of practice. Second, the results imply that, once basic market institutions are established, further developments in regulation may not lead to noticeable improvements in value relevance. Since new regulations introduced in Poland after 2000 and 2005 were part of the international harmonization process, their primary effect may have been in facilitating foreign investment in Poland and in the later international expansion of Polish enterprises, rather than in strengthening the national information environment.